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Records the full v2 gate result and three findings that outlive the ship call: 1. The effect is UNDERPOWERED, not absent. Both candidates closed 48-52% of the achievable span to held-out Bronte and beat base on every individual seed, but the gaps sit under the measured floor. Sensitivity floor stated so the negative is falsifiable: cannot resolve better than ~0.251 delta_cb at 30 beats x 4 seeds. Cause is structural — 81 val pairs against Hemingway's 200, from a 678k-word corpus against 994k — and neither more beats nor more seeds fixes it. 2. A DEFECT IN THE v2 RULE. The floor is the largest within-arm spread across ALL arms, so adding a third noisier arm raised the bar that failed the clean one. Run as a two-arm gate the floor would have been 0.092 and the candidate would have cleared at 2.1x. Deliberately NOT exploited — choosing the floor that passes your preferred answer is the failure pre-registration exists to prevent — but the rule should state whether the floor spans the compared pair or every arm present. As written, a verdict depends on which other arms you happened to run. 3. The two-epochs-on-a-three-epoch-schedule recipe did NOT transfer. Bronte's two minima are 0.0022 apart against a 0.0046 jitter; epoch 2 buys nothing over epoch 1. The epoch-3 collapse (+0.075, ~16x jitter) is the only robust part. The outlier seed was diagnosed rather than waved away: a repeat-5gram degeneracy probe is uniform at 0.0078-0.0102 across every seed and both arms, so it is genuine delta_cb variance and the floor stands.
79 lines
4.6 KiB
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79 lines
4.6 KiB
Markdown
# `[2026-09-17]` lv-bronte: corpus gated for real, adapter trained, v2 gate FAILS the voice axis — ship call is the operator's
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**Status: trained and gated, NOT shipped.** The decision is open and belongs to the operator.
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## The gate result, in full
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| axis | result | numbers |
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|---|---|---|
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| **A. VOICE** | ❌ **FAIL** (both candidates) | ckpt925 +0.210, ckpt475 +0.193 vs base — both **under** the 0.251 measured noise floor |
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| **B. NOT COPIED** | ✅ PASS | ckpt475 **0.00 hit-rate, max 0 — identical to the never-saw-it control**; ckpt925 0.01, max 8. Positive control saturates at 160, so the detector is not blind |
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| **C. NO DAMAGE** | ✅ PASS | ran-on +0.15 against a 0.400 floor |
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```
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same-author target (held-out Brontë vs itself) delta_cb 0.338 <- best achievable
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ckpt925 0.531
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ckpt475 0.548
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base-unadapted 0.741
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```
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⭐ **THE EFFECT LOOKS REAL AND SUBSTANTIAL; THE INSTRUMENT CANNOT CERTIFY IT.** The reachable
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span is 0.741 → 0.338 = 0.403, and the adapters closed **48–52% of everything achievable**.
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Both beat base on *every individual seed*. This is an UNDERPOWERED result, not a null one —
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and a "no effect" without its floor is unfalsifiable, so: **this method cannot resolve a voice
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improvement smaller than ~0.251 delta_cb at 30 beats × 4 seeds on this corpus.**
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⭐⭐ **THE CAUSE IS STRUCTURAL: Brontë's val split yields 81 pairs (44 in-band) against
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Hemingway's 200**, because the corpus is 678k words against 994k. Maxing the fixture 30 → 44
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beats would shrink the floor by only ~√1.47 ≈ 1.2× (to ~0.21, against a 0.21 gap) — still
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marginal. **More SEEDS would not help either: the floor is a RANGE statistic, and ranges widen
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with more samples.** There is no cheap fix.
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## ⚠ A DEFECT IN THE v2 RULE ITSELF, worth fixing before the next author
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The floor is defined as the **largest within-arm seed spread across ALL arms**. Measured here:
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```
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base-unadapted 0.772 0.813 0.751 0.772 spread 0.062
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ckpt475 0.670 0.631 0.604 0.578 spread 0.092
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ckpt925 0.776 0.584 0.525 0.620 spread 0.251 <- sets the floor, on ONE seed
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```
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So **adding a third, noisier arm raised the bar that failed the clean one.** Run as the
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two-arm gate (base + ckpt475) the floor would have been 0.092 and +0.193 would have cleared
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at 2.1×. This was NOT exploited — picking the floor that passes your preferred answer is the
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threshold-chosen-after-seeing-the-numbers failure the pre-registration exists to prevent — but
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the rule should say whether the floor is computed over the compared pair or over every arm
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present. As written, a candidate's verdict depends on which *other* arms you happened to run.
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**The outlier was diagnosed, not waved away.** Degeneracy probe (fraction of a generation made
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of its most repeated 5-gram) is uniform across every seed and both arms, 0.0078–0.0102. Seed
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1234 is not a collapsed generation; delta_cb genuinely has that variance for that arm.
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## Which checkpoint, if it ships: **ckpt475**
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The two are 0.017 apart on voice — far inside any floor, i.e. indistinguishable. On the axes
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that DO resolve, ckpt475 wins both: memorisation identical to the control (ckpt925 has a
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verbatim 8-gram hit), and **2.7× tighter seed-to-seed variance** (0.092 vs 0.251) with no
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degeneracy to explain the difference — consistent with ckpt925 sitting nearer the overfit
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boundary. Given a coin-flip on voice, take the one that provably did not memorise.
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⭐ **THE RECIPE DID NOT TRANSFER.** Yarros and Hemingway both found their minimum inside
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epoch two. Brontë's minima are step 475 (ep 1.00, 2.6107) and step 925 (ep 1.96, 2.6129) —
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**0.0022 apart against a 0.0046 median neighbour jitter, i.e. indistinguishable**. Epoch 2
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buys Brontë NOTHING over epoch 1. What IS robust is the epoch-3 collapse: +0.075, ~16× jitter.
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Do not carry "two epochs on a three-epoch schedule" to a new author as settled.
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## Artefacts
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`gx10:~/lv-bronte/` (corpus-clean, corpus-renamed, entities-final.json, pairs/, beats-bronte-30.json),
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`gx10:~/r49-runs/bronte-4b-pairs-3ep/` (57 checkpoints kept), `gx10:~/r49-runs/bronte-eval/`
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(three arms × 120 generations, memorization.txt, voice_distance.txt, score.*.txt).
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Commits `fc834a8` `533cc0c` `7964d07` `e9e8c40` `8bb7686`.
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⚠ Two output labels in `voice_distance.py` are hardcoded Yarros strings — it prints
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"reference: held-out Yarros" and a boilerplate "Base < Instruct" corroboration line. The
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NUMBERS are Brontë's; those two labels are not. Not yet fixed.
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Related: [[2026-09-16-lv-voices-line]], [[2026-09-16-lv-hemingway-corpus]], [[2026-09-16-voices-seat-lora]].
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