vh
9b360e477d
Records the full v2 gate result and three findings that outlive the ship call: 1. The effect is UNDERPOWERED, not absent. Both candidates closed 48-52% of the achievable span to held-out Bronte and beat base on every individual seed, but the gaps sit under the measured floor. Sensitivity floor stated so the negative is falsifiable: cannot resolve better than ~0.251 delta_cb at 30 beats x 4 seeds. Cause is structural — 81 val pairs against Hemingway's 200, from a 678k-word corpus against 994k — and neither more beats nor more seeds fixes it. 2. A DEFECT IN THE v2 RULE. The floor is the largest within-arm spread across ALL arms, so adding a third noisier arm raised the bar that failed the clean one. Run as a two-arm gate the floor would have been 0.092 and the candidate would have cleared at 2.1x. Deliberately NOT exploited — choosing the floor that passes your preferred answer is the failure pre-registration exists to prevent — but the rule should state whether the floor spans the compared pair or every arm present. As written, a verdict depends on which other arms you happened to run. 3. The two-epochs-on-a-three-epoch-schedule recipe did NOT transfer. Bronte's two minima are 0.0022 apart against a 0.0046 jitter; epoch 2 buys nothing over epoch 1. The epoch-3 collapse (+0.075, ~16x jitter) is the only robust part. The outlier seed was diagnosed rather than waved away: a repeat-5gram degeneracy probe is uniform at 0.0078-0.0102 across every seed and both arms, so it is genuine delta_cb variance and the floor stands.
4.6 KiB
[2026-09-17] lv-bronte: corpus gated for real, adapter trained, v2 gate FAILS the voice axis — ship call is the operator's
Status: trained and gated, NOT shipped. The decision is open and belongs to the operator.
The gate result, in full
| axis | result | numbers |
|---|---|---|
| A. VOICE | ❌ FAIL (both candidates) | ckpt925 +0.210, ckpt475 +0.193 vs base — both under the 0.251 measured noise floor |
| B. NOT COPIED | ✅ PASS | ckpt475 0.00 hit-rate, max 0 — identical to the never-saw-it control; ckpt925 0.01, max 8. Positive control saturates at 160, so the detector is not blind |
| C. NO DAMAGE | ✅ PASS | ran-on +0.15 against a 0.400 floor |
same-author target (held-out Brontë vs itself) delta_cb 0.338 <- best achievable
ckpt925 0.531
ckpt475 0.548
base-unadapted 0.741
⭐ THE EFFECT LOOKS REAL AND SUBSTANTIAL; THE INSTRUMENT CANNOT CERTIFY IT. The reachable span is 0.741 → 0.338 = 0.403, and the adapters closed 48–52% of everything achievable. Both beat base on every individual seed. This is an UNDERPOWERED result, not a null one — and a "no effect" without its floor is unfalsifiable, so: this method cannot resolve a voice improvement smaller than ~0.251 delta_cb at 30 beats × 4 seeds on this corpus.
⭐⭐ THE CAUSE IS STRUCTURAL: Brontë's val split yields 81 pairs (44 in-band) against Hemingway's 200, because the corpus is 678k words against 994k. Maxing the fixture 30 → 44 beats would shrink the floor by only ~√1.47 ≈ 1.2× (to ~0.21, against a 0.21 gap) — still marginal. More SEEDS would not help either: the floor is a RANGE statistic, and ranges widen with more samples. There is no cheap fix.
⚠ A DEFECT IN THE v2 RULE ITSELF, worth fixing before the next author
The floor is defined as the largest within-arm seed spread across ALL arms. Measured here:
base-unadapted 0.772 0.813 0.751 0.772 spread 0.062
ckpt475 0.670 0.631 0.604 0.578 spread 0.092
ckpt925 0.776 0.584 0.525 0.620 spread 0.251 <- sets the floor, on ONE seed
So adding a third, noisier arm raised the bar that failed the clean one. Run as the two-arm gate (base + ckpt475) the floor would have been 0.092 and +0.193 would have cleared at 2.1×. This was NOT exploited — picking the floor that passes your preferred answer is the threshold-chosen-after-seeing-the-numbers failure the pre-registration exists to prevent — but the rule should say whether the floor is computed over the compared pair or over every arm present. As written, a candidate's verdict depends on which other arms you happened to run.
The outlier was diagnosed, not waved away. Degeneracy probe (fraction of a generation made of its most repeated 5-gram) is uniform across every seed and both arms, 0.0078–0.0102. Seed 1234 is not a collapsed generation; delta_cb genuinely has that variance for that arm.
Which checkpoint, if it ships: ckpt475
The two are 0.017 apart on voice — far inside any floor, i.e. indistinguishable. On the axes that DO resolve, ckpt475 wins both: memorisation identical to the control (ckpt925 has a verbatim 8-gram hit), and 2.7× tighter seed-to-seed variance (0.092 vs 0.251) with no degeneracy to explain the difference — consistent with ckpt925 sitting nearer the overfit boundary. Given a coin-flip on voice, take the one that provably did not memorise.
⭐ THE RECIPE DID NOT TRANSFER. Yarros and Hemingway both found their minimum inside epoch two. Brontë's minima are step 475 (ep 1.00, 2.6107) and step 925 (ep 1.96, 2.6129) — 0.0022 apart against a 0.0046 median neighbour jitter, i.e. indistinguishable. Epoch 2 buys Brontë NOTHING over epoch 1. What IS robust is the epoch-3 collapse: +0.075, ~16× jitter. Do not carry "two epochs on a three-epoch schedule" to a new author as settled.
Artefacts
gx10:~/lv-bronte/ (corpus-clean, corpus-renamed, entities-final.json, pairs/, beats-bronte-30.json),
gx10:~/r49-runs/bronte-4b-pairs-3ep/ (57 checkpoints kept), gx10:~/r49-runs/bronte-eval/
(three arms × 120 generations, memorization.txt, voice_distance.txt, score.*.txt).
Commits fc834a8 533cc0c 7964d07 e9e8c40 8bb7686.
⚠ Two output labels in voice_distance.py are hardcoded Yarros strings — it prints
"reference: held-out Yarros" and a boilerplate "Base < Instruct" corroboration line. The
NUMBERS are Brontë's; those two labels are not. Not yet fixed.
Related: 2026-09-16-lv-voices-line, 2026-09-16-lv-hemingway-corpus, 2026-09-16-voices-seat-lora.