docs(diagnostics): R30 gap-injection harness — banked (run closed on offline+face-validity)

Deployed gap-injection run closed by operator steer 2026-07-04: R30 graduates on
offline-tests + human face-validity, no deployed harness build, no endpoint.
Harness (read/predict/record; write side stubbed) + brokkr's R30.10 protocol pin
(de8357f) banked as drop-in for the parked powered true-tau perceptual study.
predict() self-validated against brokkr's N=0 anchors (1h/10h/1wk).

docs/diagnostics/r30-gap-injection-findings.md

@@ -0,0 +1,64 @@
+# R30 gap-injection — deployed-run harness (BANKED, not run)
+
+**Status:** CLOSED — not executed. On 2026-07-04 the operator steered **close R30 on
+offline-tests + human face-validity**, no deployed harness build, no endpoint. No
+`(agent, N, Δt, observed p/a/d)` series was collected. This harness + brokkr's protocol
+are **banked / drop-in** for the parked powered true-τ perceptual study if it is ever
+commissioned.
+
+**Spec pin:** brokkr R30.10 protocol `de8357f` —
+`brokkr-smithy/research/R30-ocean-derived-mood-dynamics/empirics/r30-gap-injection-protocol.md`.
+
+## Why it was closed (not built)
+
+The deployed gap-injection run was **confirmatory, not measuring** (brokkr's §0 reframe:
+against a deployed system the fade is `exp(−Δt/τ_shipped)` by construction, so a fit
+returns τ_shipped tautologically — the run graduates the interim coefficients, it does not
+measure them). Given that:
+
+- The repo's **offline tests already cover the OU formula + BOTH directions**
+  (`high_N_fades_slower_than_low_N` decay, `phenotype_high_n_bigger_negative_excursion` gain).
+- **b17 is deployed-clean** on demo + personal.
+- The ①-approved **mood-holds-within-conversation** IS the face-validity call.
+
+…the interim coefficients **graduate validated-as-shipped** with no deployed run needed.
+
+The build cost that would have been required (and was declined):
+
+- No deployed write affordance exists; the in-memory `_user_moods` cache **shadows** raw
+  `persona_mood.db` writes, so a clean inject needs an in-service **set-mood/back-date
+  endpoint** (set p/a/d + `updated_at` + evict cache).
+- `moody-lofn N=+0.8` **does not exist** (only lofn `N=−0.5`; tier-3 empty OCEAN → N=0), so
+  the gain half would have needed a new high-N tier-1 agent + deploy — dropped as the
+  expensive, offline-redundant half.
+
+## What is validated (harness self-check)
+
+`harness.py::predict()` reproduces brokkr's stated N=0 P-axis retention anchors **exactly**:
+
+| Δt | predicted | brokkr stated |
+|---|---|---|
+| 1h (3600s) | 0.904837 | 0.905 |
+| 10h/overnight (36000s) | 0.367879 | 0.368 |
+| 1 week (604800s) | 5.06e-08 | 5e-08 |
+
+Per-axis τ confirms arousal fades ~1.9× faster (N=0: τ_P = τ_D = 10h, τ_A = 5.26h).
+
+## Personal `:8081` b17 baseline survey (candidate N-grid agents, all at rest)
+
+| agent | baseline p/a/d | note |
+|---|---|---|
+| lofn | 0.809 / −0.153 / 0.248 | production, N=−0.5 |
+| mask | 0.0 / 0.0 / 0.0 | zero baseline → zero-N candidate |
+| forseti | 0.239 / −0.696 / 0.095 | production |
+| mimir | 0.615 / −0.438 / 0.304 | production |
+
+(sindra 404s — owner-scoped tier-3, expected.)
+
+## To un-bank (if the powered study is commissioned)
+
+1. Worldtree builds the in-service **set-mood/back-date endpoint** (set p/a/d + `updated_at`
+   + evict `_user_moods`), or the read-only fade-preview variant if that satisfies D1.
+2. Wire `harness.py::freeze_start()` + `backdate()` to that endpoint (near-zero rebuild).
+3. Run the 3×8 grid (frozen start p=−0.6/a=+0.5/d=−0.3 × Δt grid), hand brokkr the
+   `(agent, N, Δt, observed p/a/d)` table + per-agent `baseline_pad()`; he runs D1/D2/D3.

docs/diagnostics/r30-gap-injection-harness.py

@@ -0,0 +1,110 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""R30 gap-injection probe harness (ratatoskr instrument).
+
+Throwaway probe per the R30.10 protocol
+  brokkr-smithy/research/R30-ocean-derived-mood-dynamics/empirics/r30-gap-injection-protocol.md (de8357f)
+
+Deliverable: the (agent, N, Δt, observed p/a/d) table + per-agent baseline_pad + the
+frozen start vector, handed to brokkr who runs D1/D2/D3 graduation. This harness does NOT
+own the verdict; the predicted/residual columns are a sanity aid only.
+
+READ + PREDICT + RECORD are fixed by the spec. freeze_start() + backdate() are the WRITE
+side and are STUBBED pending worldtree's mechanism on personal :8081 (direct persona_mood
+DB write vs a test affordance). Data lands on a diag/ branch; NOT ratatoskr production code.
+"""
+import json
+import math
+import os
+import urllib.request
+import urllib.error
+
+BASE = os.environ.get("WORLDTREE_API_URL", "http://10.250.50.152:8081")
+KEY = os.environ["WORLDTREE_API_KEY"]
+
+# --- R30.10 spec constants (FIXED) ---
+TAU_BASE_S = 36000.0          # τ_base = 10h
+BETA_N = 0.25                 # τ_P = τ_base · exp(β_N · N)
+R_A = 1.9                     # τ_A = τ_P / r_A ; τ_D = τ_P
+FROZEN_START = {"pleasure": -0.60, "arousal": +0.50, "dominance": -0.30}
+DT_GRID = [0, 60, 600, 3600, 14400, 36000, 86400, 604800]  # s
+AXES = ("pleasure", "arousal", "dominance")
+EPS = 1e-3                    # D1 tolerance (PAD units)
+
+
+def tau(axis, N):
+    tau_p = TAU_BASE_S * math.exp(BETA_N * N)
+    return {"pleasure": tau_p, "arousal": tau_p / R_A, "dominance": tau_p}[axis]
+
+
+def retention(axis, dt, N):
+    """ρ_k(Δt,N) = exp(−Δt / τ_k(N)) — predicted deviation-retention fraction."""
+    return math.exp(-dt / tau(axis, N))
+
+
+def _get(path):
+    req = urllib.request.Request(BASE + path, headers={"Authorization": f"Bearer {KEY}"})
+    with urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=8) as r:
+        return json.load(r)
+
+
+def read_pad(agent):
+    """get_state read: returns (pad, baseline_pad). pad == peek_relaxed(now), OU-faded, non-mutating."""
+    d = _get(f"/agents/{agent}/persona_state")
+    return d["pad"], d["baseline_pad"]
+
+
+# --- WRITE SIDE: STUBBED pending worldtree mechanism (msg 01KWNVHTFP…) ---
+def freeze_start(agent, pad):
+    """Set persona_mood pad directly to the displaced vector (no live appraisal)."""
+    raise NotImplementedError("worldtree mechanism pending: freeze displaced start mood pad")
+
+
+def backdate(agent, dt_s):
+    """Set persona_mood.updated_at = now − dt_s so peek_relaxed fades by exactly Δt."""
+    raise NotImplementedError("worldtree mechanism pending: back-date persisted updated_at")
+
+
+def predict_selfcheck():
+    """Validate retention() against brokkr's stated N=0 P-axis anchors (spec §2 D3)."""
+    print("predict() self-check — N=0 P-axis retention vs brokkr's stated anchors:")
+    expect = {"1h": (3600, 0.905), "10h(overnight)": (36000, 0.368), "1wk": (604800, 5e-8)}
+    ok = True
+    for label, (dt, want) in expect.items():
+        got = retention("pleasure", dt, 0.0)
+        match = abs(got - want) < (want * 0.01 + 1e-9)  # 1% or float-floor
+        ok = ok and match
+        print(f"  {label:>16}: got {got:.6g}  expect {want:.6g}  {'OK' if match else 'MISMATCH'}")
+    # per-axis τ at a couple N points (informational)
+    print("τ (hours) by axis × N:")
+    for N in (-0.6, 0.0, 0.8):
+        taus = {a: tau(a, N) / 3600 for a in AXES}
+        print(f"  N={N:+.1f}: P={taus['pleasure']:.2f}h A={taus['arousal']:.2f}h D={taus['dominance']:.2f}h")
+    return ok
+
+
+def run_cell(agent, N, dt, baseline):
+    """One (agent, Δt) cell: freeze start → back-date by Δt → read faded pad → record row.
+    Blocked until freeze_start()/backdate() are wired to worldtree's mechanism."""
+    freeze_start(agent, FROZEN_START)
+    backdate(agent, dt)
+    pad, _ = read_pad(agent)
+    row = {"agent": agent, "N": N, "dt_s": dt}
+    for k in AXES:
+        obs = pad[k]
+        dev0 = abs(FROZEN_START[k] - baseline[k])
+        pred_dev = dev0 * retention(k, dt, N)
+        obs_dev = abs(obs - baseline[k])
+        row[f"obs_{k[0]}"] = obs
+        row[f"pred_dev_{k[0]}"] = pred_dev
+        row[f"resid_{k[0]}"] = obs_dev - pred_dev
+    return row
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    import sys
+    if len(sys.argv) > 1 and sys.argv[1] == "read":
+        agent = sys.argv[2]
+        pad, base = read_pad(agent)
+        print(json.dumps({"agent": agent, "pad": pad, "baseline_pad": base}, indent=2))
+    else:
+        predict_selfcheck()

persistent-memory.md

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 # Persistent memory — ratatoskr
 
-_Last updated: 2026-07-02_
+_Last updated: 2026-07-03_
 
 This file captures durable intent and supporting evidence (goals, decisions,
 foot-gun warnings, in-flight state) across context resets. Read it at session
@@ -39,44 +39,53 @@ upstream API key stays server-side (INV-003).
 
 ## Current state / in-flight
 
-_As of 2026-07-02:_
+_As of 2026-07-03:_
 
-**LATEST — SINDRA AFFECT/MEMORY INVESTIGATION COMPLETE; FOUR upstream items driven from the persistence
-side (the consumer/provider thesis at full tilt).** A ~40-turn controlled probe of Sindra's affect + a
-memory round-trip characterized the Tier-3 model from things chat can't see. NO new ratatoskr code this
-arc (investigation + althing coordination only; code tip stays `v0.19.5`). Findings + routing:
-(1) **PAD is over-regulated** — pleasure compressed near neutral BOTH directions (can't reach ±0.3 even
-under sustained extreme praise/contempt; over-regulation worse for *social* valence than threat),
-**arousal** responsive (reaches its ±band), **dominance** flat/unresponsive to power-framing → tracked
-as a worldtree-dev affect slice (loci: appraisal→PAD gain + regression-to-baseline term). Corrected my
-own "asymmetry" over-claim to "both-sides-compressed" mid-probe.
-(2) **Memory plane HEALTHY** — seed→promotion→cold-recall proven end-to-end (verbatim capture, 0.74
-confidence, no #296 subject-inversion).
-(3) **Salience scorer non-discriminating** (zero-shot-LLM-self-rating: 51/56 chunks at 0.9-1.0; a
-throwaway "17×23?" scored 1.0 tied with a real fact) + recall-utility untracked (`access_tally`=0) →
-**Worldtree #335** (code fix, deferred) + **brokkr R28 OPEN** — pre-scope panel reframed it to
-**PROMOTION-WORTHINESS** (durable value) NOT salience (momentary attention: "17×23" genuinely IS salient
-→ recalibrating gives a well-calibrated WRONG answer); unit = set-selection-under-budget, eval =
-outcome-aligned (recall@budget). **ratatoskr delivered the P00 injection-corpus**
-(`docs/diagnostics/r28-p00-injection-corpus.json` — 24 self-labeling items × 3 strata: admission-traps /
-ranked priority-traps / calibration-control) + baked 2 run-validity pins (absent≠dropped without a
-GUARANTEED promotion pass; fresh agent+end_user per run vs server-side dedup). **Standing by to RUN the
-eval** once brokkr pins per-stratum N + the decision rule (gated on worldtree-dev's pipeline answer [does
-salience feed priority/eviction?] + a dwarf pass). Key structural finding: salience gates PROMOTION not
-RECALL-ranking (our search is cosine-only) → bad salience = storage bloat, not bad recall.
-(4) **relation_context coherence FIXED + the whole RELATIONAL-DYNAMICS ARC is now LIVE on demo (v1.0.0b9).**
-My flag → Worldtree #319/#320 Waves 0/1/2, deployed to demo (run 551 green). Now live on the wire ratatoskr
-persists (relation_edge/1 schema UNCHANGED — all within existing fields; drift-pin + vendored canon
-unaffected): **relation_context** varies on the Hwang ladder {stranger, instrumental, mixed, expressive} +
-now DEMOTES/RUPTURES (Wave-2B); **other_stance** (0,0)→live (the user's displayed warmth/agency);
-**agency** 0→live (pulled toward the COMPLEMENT of the user's dominance, Wave-2A) — which **shifts our
-canonical directive render once agency crosses the canon ±0.2 deadband** (expected, non-breaking — we key
-on the canon bands); **obligation_balance** None→人情 ledger {given,owed,currency,last_exchange} when tie is
-"mixed" (given/owed stay 0, favor dynamics deferred). **ratatoskr needs NO code change** (renders all
-value-agnostically; confirmed render-clean on the logic to worldtree-dev). **LIVE-CONFIRM PENDING:** our
-Heimdall key is personal-`:8081`-ONLY (per-instance), so can't verify the varying values on demo — will
-drive a turn + confirm the ladder/agency-clause render once PERSONAL picks up b9 (worldtree-dev pings).
-Optional enhancement noted: surface `other_stance` (now a live signal, currently unrendered).
+**LATEST — the R29→R30 affect-calibration arc DELIVERED (my finding → shipped fix → measurement against
+the fix).** NO new ratatoskr code this arc (throwaway `/tmp` probe scripts + two `diag/` data branches +
+althing coordination; main code tip stays `v0.19.5`). The consumer/provider thesis at full tilt —
+ratatoskr as the affect-probe INSTRUMENT for brokkr/worldtree R-targets:
+
+(1) **R29 (PAD mood-dynamics) — my flat-affect finding SHIPPED as Worldtree's A1 anchor fix (demo
+v1.0.0b14, `e1cdf82`).** Live-probing base persona agents (lofn/mimir/forseti/mask, personal :8081)
+reframed the over-regulation: it's **decay-to-neutral + low emotion→PAD gain**, NOT flat-near-zero and
+NOT baseline-anchored — triangulated across 3 baselines (arousal converges to 0 ∝ distance) + a
+step-response (decay τ symmetric across signs; hedonic asymmetry is ceiling/anchor-EMERGENT, not a
+decay or gain primitive). worldtree-dev shipped A1: `decay_anchor = baseline_pad()` (was neutral) +
+`positive_p_cap` removed. Data on `diag/r29-pad-series` (`61ff2da`).
+
+(2) **R30 Phase-1 (φ0 pin) — DELIVERED, config-faithful.** Measured the pure PAD-point decay on demo b14
+(the corrected anchor) via brokkr's **joint two-timescale fit** + empty-tail cross-check: **φ0 ≈
+0.95–0.97** (empty-tail 0.95 exact, joint 0.971±0.01), **intercept c ≈ 0** → the deployed engine
+faithfully applies config `decay_rate=0.05` (φ=0.95); KILLS the config≠behavior worry, and the R29 "net
+0.90" is resolved as CONTINUOUS RE-APPRAISAL (only NEW dedup-gated emotions push mood; the active set
+decays for render/goals but never re-pushes — source-confirmed vs `registry.py::post_turn`). **Trait-flat**
+across baselines 0.0/0.615/0.809; **A/P decay ratio ~uniform, NOT the S2-expected 1.9×** (the chronometry
+isn't in the point-decay layer). **φ_max rec: relax to ≈0.96** (preserve-persistence). Data + findings on
+`diag/r30-phi0-step-response` (`23fea72`); relayed to worldtree-dev + brokkr direct.
+
+(3) **R28 (salience→promotion-worthiness) CLOSED (operator-directed):** a deterministic
+promotion-worthiness gate suffices, no trained model (brokkr's pre-gate matched a glm-5.1 ceiling). My P00
+injection-corpus (`docs/diagnostics/r28-p00-injection-corpus.json`) + origin finding were load-bearing; my
+incumbent-substrate Arm-1 run is held as an OPTIONAL confirmation addendum (brokkr de-prioritized it,
+non-verdict-changing — run only if he asks).
+
+**Standing follow-ons (all OTHERS' calls, no-rush; brokkr/worldtree will ping):** brokkr owns the R30
+coefficient finalization → the per-turn decay has no room for `decay=f(N)` under preserve-persistence, so
+**R30's decay is being redesigned as a HYBRID wall+turn decay** (brokkr pre-scope); **R30 v1 ships
+GAIN-only** (N→negative-reactivity) with decay held at the measured 0.95. My **dedicated per-axis A/D run
+is DEFERRED** into that hybrid-decay design pass (one wall-clock-spaced run does per-axis + a turn-vs-wall
+probe together). **Phase-2** (moody-lofn GAIN-direction validation) waits on worldtree's
+`dynamics_from_ocean()` impl. The **relational-dynamics arc verify** (Wave-0/1/2 live on demo) is
+DEFERRED — it needs the bound-provider round-trip (`relations[]` is Bifrost-provider-only per ADR-0009,
+NOT on the affect_update SSE — confirmed both ways), its own focused session; worldtree-dev routed the
+"expose relations[] to non-provider consumers" scope call to Vuong (my rec: keep provider-only).
+
+**Demo access:** infra-ops provisioned a DEMO Heimdall key (`http://10.250.50.152:8080`, v1.0.0b14, key
+suffix `…49bc5bfc`, tier user, mirrors personal scope). `affect_update` reads work WITHOUT a self-define
+step (base-agent affect path ungated for the key as provisioned). Personal `:8081` is still v1.0.0b9;
+demo `:8080` = b14 (the A1 fix). Env was in `/tmp/r30-demo-env.sh` (ephemeral — re-request via infra-ops
+if a future session needs demo).
 
 **THE WEB SURFACE (`ratatoskr-web`, `:8765`) IS NOW THE OPERATOR'S PRIMARY DEBUG SURFACE, at full TUI
 pane parity + a rebuilt persona pane — `v0.19.5`.** The **persona/affect pane** was rebuilt: it read
@@ -144,8 +153,10 @@ findings, cross-model-verified); b2 + the later slices were offered but not revi
 runs dirty (auto-regen, not chased — never stage it). Contract-skip was invoked for the low-effort
 GET wrappers + `stream_admin_events`, but contract #2 / #1 / #6 were amended to stay canonical.
 
-Branch: `main` — **code tip `v0.19.5`** (`a99f247`); memory snapshots ride on top (this arc added no
-code — investigation + althing coordination only). All pushed to `origin`. Remote: `origin → git@gitea.phasefinal.com:vh/ratatoskr.git`.
+Branch: `main` — **code tip `v0.19.5`** (`a99f247`); memory snapshots ride on top (the R29→R30 arc added
+NO ratatoskr code — probes are throwaway `/tmp` scripts + data on `diag/` branches). Two diagnostic data
+branches pushed: `diag/r29-pad-series` (`61ff2da`) + `diag/r30-phi0-step-response` (`23fea72`) — per-turn
+affect series + findings, brokkr pulls them. All pushed to `origin`. Remote: `origin → git@gitea.phasefinal.com:vh/ratatoskr.git`.
 
 ## Recent decisions
 
@@ -234,6 +245,11 @@ decision. Captures rationale that won't be obvious from code alone.
 
 - `[2026-07-02]` **Salience finding matured into brokkr R28 (OPEN) — ratatoskr is the eval instrument.** brokkr-smithy-dev's pre-scope panel (3 dwarves + context-blind heid, 6/6) **reframed** the target: PROMOTION-WORTHINESS (durable value), NOT salience (momentary attention) — "17×23?" genuinely IS salient, so recalibrating salience yields a well-calibrated WRONG answer; the unit is SET-SELECTION under budget; eval must be OUTCOME-aligned (recall@budget / precision-at-rate), not discrimination-spread. Ties to prior art R15 (small-model memory write-policy → the granite pick) + R25 (worldtree-kb-quality). **ratatoskr delivered the P00 stratified injection-corpus** (`docs/diagnostics/r28-p00-injection-corpus.json`, committed `4a35512`; 24 self-labeling synthetic items × 3 strata) + 2 persistence-side run-validity pins (absent≠dropped without a guaranteed promotion pass; fresh agent+end_user per run vs server-dedup). **Key architectural constraint I surfaced: ratatoskr is DOWNSTREAM of the promotion gate (sees only PROMOTED chunks), so I can give keep/drop OUTCOMES via injection but NOT the pre-admission shadow pool** — that's Worldtree instrumentation. Standing by to RUN the eval once brokkr pins per-stratum N + the decision rule (gated on worldtree-dev's pipeline answer + a dwarf pass on the Snorri rule). brokkr owns methodology + takes the pipeline questions to worldtree-dev direct; ratatoskr = eval instrument. [consumer/provider thesis → a research target]
 - `[2026-07-02]` **Relational-dynamics arc LIVE on demo (Worldtree v1.0.0b9) — driven by MY relation_context flag.** #319/#320 Waves 0/1/2 deployed. On the wire we persist (schema UNCHANGED): relation_context varies+demotes/ruptures; other_stance + agency now live; agency going live SHIFTS our canonical directive render past the canon ±0.2 deadband (expected, non-breaking — we key on bands); obligation_balance → 人情 ledger when tie="mixed". **ratatoskr needs NO code change** (value-agnostic renders; confirmed render-clean to worldtree-dev). **Can't live-confirm yet — our Heimdall key is personal-`:8081`-only (per-instance), demo is out of reach; will drive+confirm once PERSONAL gets b9.** Optional follow-up: surface `other_stance` (newly live, unrendered). The consumer/provider thesis: one persona-pane finding drove a full 3-wave upstream arc to production.
+- `[2026-07-02]` **R28 (salience→promotion-worthiness) CLOSED (operator-directed).** A deterministic promotion-worthiness gate suffices, no trained model (brokkr's pre-gate matched/beat a strong glm-5.1 ceiling); my P00 injection-corpus + origin finding were load-bearing. My incumbent-substrate Arm-1 run is held as an OPTIONAL confirmation addendum (brokkr de-prioritized it, non-verdict-changing — run only if he asks).
+- `[2026-07-02]` **R29 (PAD mood-dynamics) finding SHIPPED as Worldtree's A1 anchor fix (demo v1.0.0b14, `e1cdf82`).** Live-probing base persona agents reframed the over-regulation from "flat-near-zero" to **decay-to-NEUTRAL + low emotion→PAD gain** (NOT baseline-anchored) — triangulated across 3 baselines (arousal converges to 0 ∝ distance) + a step-response (decay τ symmetric across signs; the hedonic asymmetry is ceiling/anchor-EMERGENT, not a decay or gain primitive — this OVERTURNED the survey's asymmetry recommendation). worldtree-dev shipped A1: `decay_anchor = baseline_pad()` (was neutral) + `positive_p_cap` removed. Data `diag/r29-pad-series` (`61ff2da`). Corrected my own earlier "appraisal emissions are internal-only" claim — they ARE observable via `emotions_active` on base agents.
+- `[2026-07-03]` **R30 Phase-1 φ0 measured — deployed engine CONFIG-FAITHFUL (φ0≈0.95).** Joint two-timescale fit (brokkr-ruled method (b)) + empty-tail cross-check on demo b14: φ0 ≈ 0.95–0.97 (empty-tail 0.95 exact, joint 0.971±0.01), intercept c≈0 → config `decay_rate=0.05` (φ=0.95) faithfully applied; trait-flat across baselines 0.0/0.615/0.809; A/P ratio ~uniform (NOT S2's 1.9×); φ_max rec relax→0.96. Data `diag/r30-phi0-step-response` (`23fea72`). The method converged after I read Worldtree source: only NEW dedup-gated emotions push mood (`registry.py::post_turn` L307-324; the active set decays for render/goals but never re-pushes), so R29's "net 0.90" is CONTINUOUS RE-APPRAISAL not re-push — worldtree-dev confirmed source-authoritatively; brokkr's corrected covariate landed identical. [auto-memory `reference-worldtree-affect-surface-map`]
+- `[2026-07-03]` **R30 forward disposition (brokkr-owned; tracked at brokkr R30, "brokkr/worldtree will ping").** The per-turn decay has no room for `decay=f(N)` under preserve-persistence + the A/P-not-1.9 finding → R30's decay is being redesigned as a HYBRID wall+turn decay (brokkr pre-scope). R30 v1 ships GAIN-only (N→negative-reactivity) with decay held at the measured 0.95. My dedicated per-axis A/D run is DEFERRED into the hybrid-decay design pass (one wall-clock-spaced run does per-axis + a turn-vs-wall probe together). Phase-2 (moody-lofn GAIN-direction validation) waits on worldtree's `dynamics_from_ocean()` impl.
+- `[2026-07-03]` **Relational-arc verify DEFERRED — `relations[]` is Bifrost-provider-only (ADR-0009), confirmed both ways.** The relational-dynamics state (relation_context tie-type / agency / warmth / trust) is NOT on the conversation-API `affect_update` snapshot for base agents (keys: pad/dominant_emotion/emotions_active/baseline_pad/mood_drift only) — only in the provider store; worldtree-dev confirmed by-design per ADR-0009 (emitted over `affect.emit`, deliberately off the SSE). So the Wave-0/1/2 verify needs the bound-provider round-trip (provider running + `--bifrost-plane affect` session), its own focused session. worldtree-dev routed the "expose relations[] to non-provider consumers" observability scope call to Vuong; my rec: keep provider-only (YAGNI — ratatoskr IS a provider, gains nothing; no speculative public surface).
 
 _41 older entries (2026-05-* — the original debug-TUI/web build era) archived to archival-memory.md._
 
@@ -271,5 +287,8 @@ defense against re-attempting the same cul-de-sac.
 - `[2026-06-20]` **The post-turn-async timing trap bit AGAIN — even a 35s post-`[done]` read missed the promotion `upsert_many` by ~2s** (it landed `19:48:58`; the read was ~`19:48:56`). A 15s-interval background poll caught it on the first tick. Same family as the affect.emit / async-promotion traps already logged — re-confirmed that "wait once then read" is fragile for post-turn writes; **poll a window, don't snapshot once.** (The affect.emit write, by contrast, DID land inside the 35s window — promotion is the slower of the two post-turn writes.)
 - `[2026-06-30]` **Heimdall keys are PER-INSTANCE — a key minted on one Worldtree 401s on another.** Our Conversation-API key works on personal `:8081` but 401s `auth_invalid` on demo `:8080` (per-instance Heimdall user store + pepper; fresh deploys start with an EMPTY key store). Same as the admin key (personal-only). **To live-drive a given instance you need a key minted FOR that instance** (request via infra-ops). Couldn't live-prove the b2 409 on demo for this reason → deferred to personal-b2 where we have access.
 - `[2026-06-30]` **`tea comment <N>` hangs on Gitea** (the whole compound bash auto-backgrounded + stuck on the open `tea` call). The #11 prereq comment hung; killed it + posted via the Gitea HTTP API directly (`POST /api/v1/repos/vh/ratatoskr/issues/<N>/comments`, token from `~/.config/tea/config.yml`). **For issue comments, prefer the Gitea API over `tea comment` when `tea` is flaky** (CLAUDE.md already says use HTTP for comment-EDITS; this extends it to ADD when tea hangs). Verify-then-post (check the comment didn't already land) to avoid a double-post after a kill.
+- `[2026-07-02]` **Mask-HOSTED transient characters have a STATIC mood engine — cost a whole R29 probe.** A first probe used a `POST /characters` transient character bound via `agent_id=mask` + `character_id`; its PAD sat at baseline across 15 praise/contempt/dominance turns — the appraisal→PAD engine does NOT run on the mask-hosted transient-character path. The dynamics run only on BASE persona agents or a session bound to ratatoskr's affect provider. **To probe mood dynamics, use a base persona agent, never a mask-hosted transient character.** (mask AS a base agent — `agent_id=mask`, NO `character_id` — DOES run the engine, neutral 0,0,0 baseline.) [auto-memory `reference-worldtree-affect-surface-map`]
+- `[2026-07-03]` **The "neutral non-appraising tail" premise fails — the neutral MESSAGE choice dominates.** The R30 φ0 method assumed neutral turns don't re-appraise, but factual-question neutrals ("capital of France?") trigger a new emotion nearly every turn (disappointment from the warmth-withdrawal let-down after a positive impulse) → `emotions_active` never empties in 50 turns. A minimal "Please continue." triggers FAR fewer (emotions clear ~turn 16 with spacing). The personal dry-run caught this BEFORE ~280 demo turns were spent on it — the instrument catching a flaw in the measurement design before the compute burn. (Irrelevant to the joint fit — the push_t covariate handles re-appraisal — but load-bearing for the empty-tail read.)
+- `[2026-07-03]` **Two φ0-fit traps: fast-turn timescale + low-baseline conditioning.** (1) At fast turn cadence the per-turn PAD decay (φ≈0.95/turn) reaches the anchor LONG before the ~200s wall-clock emotion fade → no signal in the (eventual) emotion-free tail; need wall-clock SPACING (~16s) so the fade lands while PAD still has signal. (2) A low-baseline agent's impulse in the constrained direction (forseti P0.239 negative) gives a tiny excursion → ill-conditioned regression (r²=0.46) that FALSELY tripped "config≠behavior" when its φ was averaged in. **Weight/exclude by fit quality (r²) before aggregating — a signal-poor run isn't evidence against the config.**
 
 _18 older entries (2026-05-* — the original debug-TUI/web build era) archived to archival-memory.md._