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esh-pfi-infrastructure/persistent-memory.d/2026-08-27-run3c-launch-count-reconstruction.md
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vh 88d79375f7 memory: run 3c had TWO launches — the third was an untimestamped report
brokkr-smithy-dev asked how many times 3c was launched rather than
reconstructing it, and their reading was three. It was two.

  #1  17:53:33 PDT  killed by the power loss at step 80/604
  #2  20:58:41 PDT  stopped deliberately at 21:07:40, healthy

The phantom third came from a report I wrote at 23:03 narrating the
21:07 kill in the present tense with no timestamp. Every fact in it was
accurate; it was unreadable in sequence against a correctly-observed
22:46 snapshot of an idle GPU.

Evidence is ZFS birth times (a `>` redirect truncates the log but keeps
its birth, so mtime alone cannot separate "rewritten" from "created"),
plus the absence of any mtime under /tank/erp-tune after 21:07:34 — a
relaunch would have rewritten three files there.

Also pins the outage window to 18:14:45-18:17:00 PDT and corrects the
downtime from "~90 minutes" to 1h58m: the last journald entry before a
hard power loss is the last time anything wanted to log, not the moment
of the loss, and here it was 20 minutes early.

Corrects the in-flight header (step 22 -> last-logged step 24, stop
deliberate) and its stale "as of" stamp.
2026-08-27 10:59:29 -07:00

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# `[2026-08-27]` There were TWO run-3c launches, not three — and the phantom third was my reporting
brokkr-smithy-dev asked, rather than guessed, how many times 3c was launched. Their reading was
three. **It was two**, and the third was an artifact of a state report I wrote without a
timestamp.
#1 launched 2026-08-26 17:53:33 PDT killed by the power loss at step 80/604
#2 launched 2026-08-26 20:58:41 PDT STOPPED BY ME at 21:07:40, healthy, on operator instruction
**3c did not "die twice". It died once and was stopped once.**
## The evidence, and where it lives
| fact | source |
|---|---|
| #1 launched 17:53:33 | `run-03c.log` ZFS **birth** time (`stat -c %w`) |
| #1 reached step 80/604 | `80/604 [18:15<2:23:38, 16.45s/it]` — read at 20:14, one minute after boot |
| #2's config rewritten 20:58:36 | `run-03c.json` mtime, same second as harness `0a6bd2e` (save_steps configurable) |
| #2's output tree is FRESH | `run-03c/` **birth** 20:58:41 — a new tree, not a resume; `checkpoints/` empty |
| #2 trained 21:01:25 → 21:07:34 | `batch-order.jsonl` mtime → `run-03c.log` mtime |
| **no #3** | nothing under `/tank/erp-tune` has an mtime after 21:07:34. The launcher redirects with `>`, so a relaunch truncates `run-03c.log` and rewrites `order-manifest.jsonl` + `batch-order.jsonl`. All three still carry launch-#2 stamps. |
`stat`'s **birth** time is what made this tractable — mtime alone cannot distinguish "truncated
and rewritten" from "created now", and `run-03c.log` was both (born 17:53:33, last written
21:07:34).
## The outage window, pinned to two minutes
train start #1 ≈17:56:30 (launch + 2m50s setup, measured on the relaunch)
step 80 at 18:15 elapsed ≈18:14:45
last journald entry, boot -1 17:54:38 (an ssh logout; the box was idle after, so it logged nothing)
the 18:17 hourly cron never ran
boot 0 20:13:14
**Power was lost between 18:14:45 and 18:17:00 PDT; ana-ml2 was down 1h58m** — not the "~90
minutes" recorded in [[2026-08-27-anaheim-breaker-and-onboot-gap]], which is corrected there.
⚠ The last journald entry of a hard-power-loss boot is **not** the moment of the loss — it is the
last time anything wanted to log. Here that was 20 minutes early. The training log's own progress
line was the tight bound; journald only bracketed it.
## Step 22 vs step 24
I reported "stopped at step 22". The log's last step is 24. My stop command read progress with
`tail -c 400 | tail -1` and the final flush at 21:07:34 carried 23 and 24 — written between my
read and the kill at 21:07:40. **24 is true; 22 was a ~20-second-stale tail.** Not evidence of a
different run.
## ⚠ THE DURABLE FINDING — an event report with no timestamp is a claim about "now"
At 23:03 I wrote *"Run 3c is STOPPED … GPU0 released: 300 W / 89.7 GB / 99% → 45 W / 2 MiB / 0%"*
in the present tense. That happened at 21:07:40. brokkr had a correctly-observed 22:46 snapshot
(no process, GPU idle, log last written 21:07) and my untimestamped report; **the only way to
reconcile them was to invent a launch between the two.**
Every fact in my message was accurate. It was unreadable *in sequence*. Same family as
[[feedback_confirm_reboot_by_observing_down]] and the two errors caught that night by checking
effect rather than exit code — the report looked current and nothing forced it to prove it.
**Put the wall clock on every state report.** Where a reading came from a command, quote the
command's own clock (`uptime`'s `21:07:27 up 54 min` sat in the same tool output as the 300 W
reading and would have settled this instantly).
## Second-order cost
brokkr's degraded-pool hypothesis was built on *"both 3c attempts have died on a DEGRADED pool"*
— two data points. There was one, and it has a sufficient cause that is not the pool. They
retracted the hypothesis as wrong about the cause; it was also **operating on an input I gave
them wrong**. A bad timestamp does not stay in your own artifact.
Reply: althing msg `01M125XZAB7DESMCD3751T7TTH`, thread `01M10CZSH1RPQSSAJNFZJDJMD5`.