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esh-pfi-infrastructure/scripts/mccarthy-corpus/eval-mccarthy.sh
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Vuong Hoang 9c8a4e959c feat(lv-mccarthy): pre-register the v2 gate before any arm is generated
Freezes the lv-mccarthy gate design while no McCarthy generation exists, per the
lv-hemingway precedent: a threshold chosen after seeing the numbers is not a
threshold. Three arms (base-unadapted, ckpt900, ckpt450), 60 beats, 4 seeds.

Settles the voice-axis question D1 deferred. McCarthy's corpus measures 0.0 quote
marks per 10k against Hemingway's 838, so "emit no quotation marks" is the cheapest
way to move a char-bigram Delta without learning a sentence. Three parts:

  PRIMARY    unchanged -- the mccarthy register names the punctuation and
             --system-from drives the base control with the same prompt, so the
             cheap win is handed to both sides.
  SECONDARY  voice_distance.py --secondary-normalised re-runs the whole analysis
             with punctuation stripped from the reference and every arm. A
             conservative lower bound; reported, never the verdict.
  TRIGGER    voice_distance.py --punct-report evaluates a pre-registered line --
             base-unadapted quote density above 100 per 10k means the control did
             not take the win it was handed, and the normalised read is promoted
             to load-bearing. 100 is the order-of-magnitude line between this
             corpus's 0.0 and Hemingway's 838, chosen now rather than after the
             table prints.

ckpt450 is NOT tied with the minimum (+4.9x the 0.00393 median neighbour jitter)
and the pre-registration says so. It is generated to test a stated prior and to
price the memorisation headroom an earlier checkpoint buys on an in-copyright
author, with a decision rule that says exactly what result would let it displace
ckpt900.

Instrument controls, run before this landed:
  - the voice_distance.py refactor reproduces the shipped lv-hemingway
    voice_distance.txt BYTE FOR BYTE on the default path
  - strip_punct drops a quote-bearing sample from 2500.0 to 0.0 marks per 10k
  - the secondary read still resolves a gap on the Hemingway arms (+0.410 at
    7.3x floor), so a null on McCarthy would be a finding, not a blind detector

Pre-flight re-run at gate time rather than quoted from 2026-09-17:
  - leak gate: 0 of 75 renameable, 0 of 37 sub-threshold, 0 separator-split,
    four controls green
  - beat-contamination audit: 0 of 3942 beats AND 0 of 3942 responses, against
    Hemingway's 70 of 7094 -- build_sft_pairs.py --source-entities earned its
    mandatory flag

Also records three provenance defects found on first read of the run and their
disposition: the hardcoded "r49-babyyarros-pairs-pilot" run label (cosmetic, same
literal on all three runs), the empty harness_commit (all three runs), and a
pairs_sha256_16 that is not a sha256sum of the file (consistent across runs, so a
cache key rather than a fault). The run is bound to McCarthy's pairs by record
count, not by the label.
2026-09-21 14:39:10 -07:00

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#!/bin/bash
# lv-mccarthy v2 gate. Design is FROZEN in scripts/mccarthy-corpus/GATE-PREREG.md
# and was written before this script ever ran. Do not edit the arms, the fixture
# size or the seeds to chase a result -- re-run, do not re-tune.
#
# THREE ARMS. ckpt900 is the eval-loss minimum (2.38706, epoch 1.958). ckpt450
# (2.4063, epoch 0.980) is +0.0193 against a 0.00393 median neighbour jitter =
# 4.9x, i.e. NOT tied -- and that is the difference from the Hemingway gate, where
# the second arm was a coin-flip. It is here to test a stated prior (on Bronte the
# earlier epoch-1 checkpoint won on the axes that resolve) and to price the
# memorisation headroom an earlier checkpoint would buy on an IN-COPYRIGHT author.
# `base` is the negative control for memorisation and the voice baseline.
# adapter/ (epoch 3.0, +18.4x jitter) is NOT gated: the loss curve settles that one.
set -o pipefail
cd ~/lv-mccarthy || exit 1
PY=/home/infra-ops/ml/.venv/bin/python
RUN=~/r49-runs/mccarthy-4b-pairs-3ep
OUT=~/r49-runs/mccarthy-eval
BEATS=beats-mccarthy-60.json
SIDE=beats-mccarthy-60.sidecar.json
PROV=pairs/pairs-full.jsonl.provenance.json
SEEDS="1234 5678 9012 3456"
mkdir -p "$OUT"
log(){ echo "[eval $(date +%H:%M:%S)] $*"; }
# --system-from is MANDATORY and it is load-bearing for the VOICE axis here, not
# merely hygienic. The mccarthy register NAMES the punctuation (no quote marks,
# `dont`/`aint`/`wont`), so driving the base control with the same prompt hands the
# cheap char-bigram win to BOTH sides and the adapter earns no delta for it. See
# GATE-PREREG.md section 5. The harness's built-in SYS is Yarros's; using it would
# confound the adapter change with a prompt change AND hand the adapter the win.
[ -f "$PROV" ] || { log "MISSING $PROV"; exit 1; }
# The run must have trained under the same system prompt the eval drives. Asserted,
# not assumed -- the Hemingway script claimed this was "verified" in a comment, which
# is a claim no reader can check. Here it fails the run.
"$PY" - "$PROV" "$RUN/provenance.json" <<'PYCHK' || exit 1
import json, sys
pairs = json.load(open(sys.argv[1]))
run = json.load(open(sys.argv[2]))
ps = pairs.get("system_prompt") or (pairs.get("register") or {}).get("system_prompt")
rs = run.get("system_prompt")
if ps is None:
print(f"== CANNOT VERIFY: no system_prompt in {sys.argv[1]}"); sys.exit(1)
if ps != rs:
print("== REFUSING: the run trained under a DIFFERENT system prompt than the eval would drive.")
print(f" pairs provenance: {ps[:120]!r}")
print(f" run provenance : {(rs or '')[:120]!r}")
sys.exit(1)
print(f" [PASS] run system_prompt == pairs system_prompt ({len(ps)} chars)")
PYCHK
# 60 beats, max-words 140: the mccarthy register asks for 90-140 and score_beats.py
# scores the in-band rate at 90-140. Building the fixture at the script's default 150
# would put reference passages outside the band the product asks for.
if [ ! -s "$BEATS" ]; then
log "building fixture"
"$PY" scripts/r49-corpus/build_beat_fixture.py \
--pairs pairs/pairs-val.jsonl --out "$BEATS" --sidecar "$SIDE" \
-n 60 --seed 4919 --min-words 90 --max-words 140 || exit 1
else
log "fixture $BEATS already exists -- reusing"
fi
for arm in base:NONE ckpt900:$RUN/checkpoints/checkpoint-900 ckpt450:$RUN/checkpoints/checkpoint-450; do
name=${arm%%:*}; path=${arm#*:}
if [ "$name" != "base" ] && [ ! -d "$path" ]; then log "MISSING $path"; exit 1; fi
if [ -s "$OUT/beats5.$name.jsonl" ]; then
log "arm $name already has $(wc -l < "$OUT/beats5.$name.jsonl") generations -- skipping"
continue
fi
log "arm $name"
if [ "$name" = "base" ]; then
"$PY" scripts/r49-corpus/gen_beats_chat_yarros.py \
--base ~/carriers/Qwen3-4B-Instruct --beats "$BEATS" \
--out "$OUT/beats5.$name.jsonl" --arm "$name" --seeds $SEEDS \
--system-from "$PROV" || exit 1
else
"$PY" scripts/r49-corpus/gen_beats_chat_yarros.py \
--base ~/carriers/Qwen3-4B-Instruct --adapter "$path" --beats "$BEATS" \
--out "$OUT/beats5.$name.jsonl" --arm "$name" --seeds $SEEDS \
--system-from "$PROV" || exit 1
fi
log " $(wc -l < "$OUT/beats5.$name.jsonl") generations"
done
log "AXIS B -- MEMORISATION (corpus = the renamed copies the adapter trained on)"
# --corpus and --eval-dir are passed explicitly: the script's Yarros defaults would
# compare a McCarthy arm against the YARROS corpus and report a clean zero that
# means "different book", not "did not memorise".
"$PY" scripts/yarros-corpus/memorization_check.py \
--eval-dir "$OUT" --corpus corpus-renamed/copies --glob 'beats5.*.jsonl' --strip 'beats5.' -n 8 \
2>&1 | tee "$OUT/memorization.txt"
for cand in ckpt900 ckpt450; do
log "AXIS C -- DAMAGE (ran-on / out-of-band), $cand vs base"
"$PY" scripts/yarros-corpus/score_beats.py \
--arm base="$OUT/beats5.base.jsonl" \
--arm ckpt900="$OUT/beats5.ckpt900.jsonl" \
--arm ckpt450="$OUT/beats5.ckpt450.jsonl" \
--baseline base --candidate "$cand" --metric-source raw \
--out "$OUT/score.$cand.json" 2>&1 | tee "$OUT/score.$cand.txt"
done
log "AXIS A -- VOICE (delta_cb vs held-out McCarthy), + the pre-registered punct reads"
"$PY" scripts/mccarthy-corpus/voice-prep.py || exit 1
"$PY" scripts/r49-corpus/voice_distance.py corpus-renamed "$OUT" --author McCarthy \
--punct-report --secondary-normalised \
2>&1 | tee "$OUT/voice_distance.txt"
echo "rc=0" > ~/lv-mccarthy/.eval-complete
log "done"