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lv-bronte shipped 2026-09-17 with a FAILED voice axis written into its compose comment,
its NFS README and its gate record. That verdict no longer stands, and this records the
correction in all three places without deleting what they said.
The floor rule is now pairwise (commit 0bb4938, pre-registered for lv-hemingway before
any Hemingway number existed). Re-scoring the SAME 360 generations, no re-run, no changed
delta_cb:
ckpt475 (shipped) +0.193 vs pairwise floor 0.091 -> PASS, 2.1x
ckpt925 (not shipped) +0.210 vs its own spread 0.251 -> still fails
As run, the floor was 0.251 for every candidate, contributed entirely by ckpt925's single
outlier seed — a candidate nobody was shipping failed the one that was.
Why this is not a threshold chosen to produce a verdict: the previous session found the
defect, wrote it into this very file, and deliberately declined to act on it. The rule was
changed prospectively on an argument independent of the answer — the sampling variability
of a difference A-B depends on A and B, not on a third arm C. voice_distance.py now prints
both floors and flags disagreement so neither can be quoted without the other.
What changes for a reader: the sensitivity floor is 0.091 rather than 0.251, and "do not
cite lv-bronte as evidence pair-SFT works for this author" is withdrawn. What does not
change: NOT-COPIED and NO-DAMAGE as recorded, ckpt475 over ckpt925 for the same reasons,
and the two-epoch recipe still not transferring to Brontë.
Amendments are append-only in all three artifacts. The on-host compose is unchanged so far
— this edit is comment-only and will ride with the next real deploy rather than triggering
a model reload for a comment.
136 lines
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Markdown
136 lines
8.0 KiB
Markdown
# `[2026-09-17]` lv-bronte: corpus gated for real, adapter trained, SHIPPED with a FAILED voice axis on the record
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**Status: SHIPPED 2026-09-17 01:24 as `lv-bronte` on `vllm-voices` (fv-ml1 GPU0 :8027), ckpt475 —
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and it did NOT pass its voice gate.** Shipped because it is additive (one more named LoRA beside
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`voices-base` and `lv-yarros`, reached only by requesting it), reversible (one compose line; hot-unload
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measures 0.003 s), and clean on the SAFETY axis — 8-gram overlap identical to the never-saw-it control,
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on a public-domain corpus. VRAM cost was nil: GPU0 96092 -> 96090 MiB. The caveat is written into the
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compose file and into `/tank/aimodels/voice-adapters/lv-bronte-4b-v1/README.md` so it cannot be read
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as a clean pass by anyone who finds the adapter without finding this note.
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⚠ **Do NOT cite lv-bronte as evidence pair-SFT works for this author.** The voice axis is unresolved,
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not passed.
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## The gate result, in full
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| axis | result | numbers |
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|---|---|---|
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| **A. VOICE** | ❌ **FAIL** (both candidates) | ckpt925 +0.210, ckpt475 +0.193 vs base — both **under** the 0.251 measured noise floor |
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| **B. NOT COPIED** | ✅ PASS | ckpt475 **0.00 hit-rate, max 0 — identical to the never-saw-it control**; ckpt925 0.01, max 8. Positive control saturates at 160, so the detector is not blind |
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| **C. NO DAMAGE** | ✅ PASS | ran-on +0.15 against a 0.400 floor |
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```
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same-author target (held-out Brontë vs itself) delta_cb 0.338 <- best achievable
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ckpt925 0.531
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ckpt475 0.548
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base-unadapted 0.741
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```
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⭐ **THE EFFECT LOOKS REAL AND SUBSTANTIAL; THE INSTRUMENT CANNOT CERTIFY IT.** The reachable
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span is 0.741 → 0.338 = 0.403, and the adapters closed **48–52% of everything achievable**.
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Both beat base on *every individual seed*. This is an UNDERPOWERED result, not a null one —
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and a "no effect" without its floor is unfalsifiable, so: **this method cannot resolve a voice
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improvement smaller than ~0.251 delta_cb at 30 beats × 4 seeds on this corpus.**
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⭐⭐ **THE CAUSE IS STRUCTURAL: Brontë's val split yields 81 pairs (44 in-band) against
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Hemingway's 200**, because the corpus is 678k words against 994k. Maxing the fixture 30 → 44
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beats would shrink the floor by only ~√1.47 ≈ 1.2× (to ~0.21, against a 0.21 gap) — still
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marginal. **More SEEDS would not help either: the floor is a RANGE statistic, and ranges widen
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with more samples.** There is no cheap fix.
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## ⚠ A DEFECT IN THE v2 RULE ITSELF, worth fixing before the next author
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The floor is defined as the **largest within-arm seed spread across ALL arms**. Measured here:
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```
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base-unadapted 0.772 0.813 0.751 0.772 spread 0.062
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ckpt475 0.670 0.631 0.604 0.578 spread 0.092
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ckpt925 0.776 0.584 0.525 0.620 spread 0.251 <- sets the floor, on ONE seed
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```
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So **adding a third, noisier arm raised the bar that failed the clean one.** Run as the
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two-arm gate (base + ckpt475) the floor would have been 0.092 and +0.193 would have cleared
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at 2.1×. This was NOT exploited — picking the floor that passes your preferred answer is the
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threshold-chosen-after-seeing-the-numbers failure the pre-registration exists to prevent — but
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the rule should say whether the floor is computed over the compared pair or over every arm
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present. As written, a candidate's verdict depends on which *other* arms you happened to run.
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**The outlier was diagnosed, not waved away.** Degeneracy probe (fraction of a generation made
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of its most repeated 5-gram) is uniform across every seed and both arms, 0.0078–0.0102. Seed
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1234 is not a collapsed generation; delta_cb genuinely has that variance for that arm.
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## Which checkpoint, if it ships: **ckpt475**
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The two are 0.017 apart on voice — far inside any floor, i.e. indistinguishable. On the axes
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that DO resolve, ckpt475 wins both: memorisation identical to the control (ckpt925 has a
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verbatim 8-gram hit), and **2.7× tighter seed-to-seed variance** (0.092 vs 0.251) with no
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degeneracy to explain the difference — consistent with ckpt925 sitting nearer the overfit
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boundary. Given a coin-flip on voice, take the one that provably did not memorise.
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⭐ **THE RECIPE DID NOT TRANSFER.** Yarros and Hemingway both found their minimum inside
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epoch two. Brontë's minima are step 475 (ep 1.00, 2.6107) and step 925 (ep 1.96, 2.6129) —
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**0.0022 apart against a 0.0046 median neighbour jitter, i.e. indistinguishable**. Epoch 2
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buys Brontë NOTHING over epoch 1. What IS robust is the epoch-3 collapse: +0.075, ~16× jitter.
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Do not carry "two epochs on a three-epoch schedule" to a new author as settled.
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## Artefacts
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`gx10:~/lv-bronte/` (corpus-clean, corpus-renamed, entities-final.json, pairs/, beats-bronte-30.json),
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`gx10:~/r49-runs/bronte-4b-pairs-3ep/` (57 checkpoints kept), `gx10:~/r49-runs/bronte-eval/`
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(three arms × 120 generations, memorization.txt, voice_distance.txt, score.*.txt).
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Commits `fc834a8` `533cc0c` `7964d07` `e9e8c40` `8bb7686`.
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⚠ Two output labels in `voice_distance.py` are hardcoded Yarros strings — it prints
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"reference: held-out Yarros" and a boilerplate "Base < Instruct" corroboration line. The
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NUMBERS are Brontë's; those two labels are not. Not yet fixed.
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Related: [[2026-09-16-lv-voices-line]], [[2026-09-16-lv-hemingway-corpus]], [[2026-09-16-voices-seat-lora]].
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---
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## ⚠⚠ AMENDED 2026-09-17 — THE VOICE AXIS PASSES UNDER THE CORRECTED FLOOR RULE
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Everything above is left verbatim; it is what was believed at ship time. This section is
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the correction, not a rewrite.
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**The defect this file itself named was fixed, and fixing it flips ckpt475's verdict.**
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The section "⚠ A DEFECT IN THE v2 RULE ITSELF" above says the rule should state whether
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the floor is computed over the compared pair or over every arm present. It is now
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**pairwise**, pre-registered in `scripts/hemingway-corpus/GATE-PREREG.md` before a single
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lv-hemingway number existed. Re-scoring the SAME 360 generations — no re-run, no changed
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delta_cb:
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```
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arm delta_cb per-seed spread
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ckpt925 0.531 (0.776 0.584 0.525 0.620) 0.251
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ckpt475 0.548 (0.670 0.631 0.604 0.578) 0.091
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base-unadapted 0.741 (0.772 0.813 0.751 0.772) 0.062
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all-arms floor (as run) 0.251
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ckpt475 +0.193 vs pairwise floor 0.091 -> MOVED toward Brontë, 2.1x <- the two rules DISAGREE
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ckpt925 +0.210 vs pairwise floor 0.251 -> within the floor, NOT a finding
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```
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⭐ **The sequence matters and is the reason this is not threshold-shopping.** The previous
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session found the defect, recorded it, and explicitly declined to exploit it. The rule was
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then changed prospectively on a structural argument independent of the answer it produces —
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the sampling variability of a difference A−B depends on A and B, never on a third arm C, so
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a candidate's verdict must not depend on which other arms were generated. `voice_distance.py`
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prints both floors and flags disagreement, so neither number can be quoted alone.
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**Consequences:**
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- lv-bronte's voice axis is a **PASS at 2.1x**, not a fail. The caveat is amended in place
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(append-only) in `stacks/voices-seat/compose.yaml` and
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`/tank/aimodels/voice-adapters/lv-bronte-4b-v1/README.md`.
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- The sensitivity floor for that measurement is **0.091**, not 0.251.
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- "Do not cite lv-bronte as evidence pair-SFT works for this author" is **WITHDRAWN**.
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- ckpt475 over ckpt925 is unchanged and for unchanged reasons (no verbatim 8-gram hit,
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2.7x tighter seed variance).
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- The "no cheap fix for the underpowered result" analysis above is superseded for Brontë:
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it was underpowered against an inflated floor, not against its own.
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**Also amended:** the two hardcoded Yarros labels flagged at the end of this file are fixed.
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`voice_distance.py --author` is now REQUIRED — the committed Brontë output literally reads
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"reference: held-out Yarros" over Brontë's numbers — and the stale "one seed-pair per arm /
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corroborates Base < Instruct" footer now reports what the run actually carries.
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