memory: the owed handoff datapoint is a tripwire, not a validation

2026-09-15 10:37:47 -07:00
parent 36f9240477
commit d0108466e9
1 changed files with 29 additions and 0 deletions
@@ -209,6 +209,35 @@ around each item is where they expect the phrasing to degrade first.
 ⚠ **Do NOT run `/snapshot` to satisfy this** — it is operator-invoked by standing rule;
 the datapoint arrives when he next calls it, not on a peer's schedule.

+⚠⚠ **RE-SCOPED 2026-09-15 (`galdrabok 1273a49`) — the owed run is a TRIPWIRE, not a
+validation, because this repo is now the MIXED shape and mixed has almost no confirming
+power.** Once BabyYarros became live in-flight work here, my next snapshot stopped being
+their `all-deferred` fixture. Against their baseline table that costs the datapoint most
+of its value, and they said so rather than waiting for the artifact:
+
+- **Surface 1 (deferred items) cannot discriminate on mixed input at all** — the UNFIXED
+  generator already scored 0/5 there. A clean `## Next steps` is exactly what broken
+  produces on this shape. Reading it as evidence would be reading noise.
+- **Surface 2 (commit invitation) can only falsify** — baseline mixed leak is 2/5, a 40%
+  event rate, so **one clean run is ~60% likely even if the fix did nothing**. One leaked
+  run refutes the shipped 0/5 outright.
+
+⛔ **If it comes back clean that is NOT validation, and it must not be written down as
+one.** It is a tripwire that did not trip. This sentence exists because it is precisely
+the one a later session quietly upgrades into "confirmed in the field".
+
+📌 **What still carries information: the verbatim `## Watch out for`.** Mixed is the
+*better* fixture for it (do-not phrasing held 5/5 there vs 3/5 on all-deferred), and it is
+the failure **nothing validates** — a leak gets caught by the step-7 read, but a deferred
+item arriving as a flat description instead of a do-not passes every check and merely
+reads as less binding. **Their predictions, on record for predict-then-check:** `## Next
+steps` clean of all six identifiers; all four items present under `## Watch out for`; both
+dirty files present and do-not-phrased. ⭐ **Least confident: `nconnect=8` — "declined in
+scope" is a modality their rule does not enumerate** (it lists deferred / parked / belayed
+/ blocked / deliberately-not-done). If one item comes through flat, that is the predicted
+one, and it would mean the rule matches VOCABULARY rather than the concept — a fixable
+miss. Thread closed from their side; no reply owed until the artifact lands.
+
 ⭐ Same family as everything above — the instrument produced a plausible artifact and
 the plausibility is exactly what makes it dangerous.