The two dated log sections had never been split, so every one of their 29 entries sat inline and the startup index had grown to 372 lines — which is the cost the two-tier scheme exists to remove, paid on every session that reads the file. 27 entries were over threshold. All 29 now have a detail file under persistent-memory.d/ and a one-line index entry that routes rather than restates. Index: 372 -> 93 lines. No archival. The soft cap fired, but every entry in this repo is dated 2026-09-21 or later, so the under-14-days guard held all of them back — and the split alone took the index well under the target without moving anything out of the active file. The in-flight section is rewritten for the post-release state: nothing is in flight, no gate is outstanding, and the next unit is explicitly recorded as the operator's undecided call rather than as a plan. The session's recommendation (U4, on three grounds) is written down so it does not have to be re-derived, alongside the two alternatives and why they are alternatives. Two dated predictions are carried forward with their dates and their instruments: the U5 adoption re-measure on 2026-09-29, which already reads 3 of 24 announced and 2 with a why from peers told nothing, and the .forever re-count a fortnight AFTER U4 lands, which is U4's own success criterion and is destroyed by running it early.
24 lines
1.2 KiB
Markdown
24 lines
1.2 KiB
Markdown
# U5's adoption prediction split in two
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_2026-09-22 · booth_
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**U5's adoption prediction, SPLIT IN TWO within an hour of
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landing — and the split is the interesting part.** The baseline was recorded as
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0 of 26. Fifty minutes after the deploy, `comfy-dev` created `muse-clothed-repro`
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and it announced itself: `{handle: comfy-dev, why: "", created: ...}`. That peer
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was told nothing. **The HANDLE propagates for free** — it rides on `booth new`
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and `booth add`, so every existing CLI caller starts announcing without learning
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anything, which is the flags-on-existing-verbs decision paying off on day zero.
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**The WHY does not** — it needs someone to know the flag exists, and this first
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one is empty.
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So re-measure BOTH on **2026-09-29**, because they answer different questions:
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find ~/booth-data -maxdepth 2 -name .booth.json | wc -l # free
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grep -l '"why": "[^"]' ~/booth-data/*/.booth.json 2>/dev/null | wc -l # learned
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A high first count and a near-zero second is the predicted shape of "nobody was
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told", and it is the case the operator's no-announcement decision was designed
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to be able to see. Do not read the n=1 above as a rate — it is a code-path
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observation (every CLI caller writes a handle), not a sample.
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