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Operator decision 2026-09-22: no broadcast to the 17 consuming handles. Same posture as U5 — adoption gets told apart from design because nobody was primed. The consequence is a measurement one and it needed writing down before it was lost. U4's two halves have different adoption costs: the hold rides for free (a session runs `booth ask` and its booth is held, knowing nothing), but NOT pressing `keep` has to be learned. So a flat `.forever` rate on 2026-10-06 is exactly what 'the mechanism works and nobody was told' looks like, and reading it as a falsification would retire a correct diagnosis on an uncontrolled measurement. Records the three counts to report instead, and states the sensitivity floor: only 4 of 24 booths carry marks at all, so the hold can touch at most a sixth of the fleet and an effect below one or two booths is not resolvable.
55 lines
3.0 KiB
Markdown
55 lines
3.0 KiB
Markdown
# No fleetwide notice for U4 — and what that does to the prediction
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_2026-09-22 · booth_
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**Operator decision, 2026-09-22: do NOT tell the 17 consuming handles that
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`keep` has stopped being the way to say "waiting on an answer".** No broadcast.
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Same posture he took on U5, and the same instrument: adoption gets told apart
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from design because nobody was primed.
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⚠ **THIS CHANGES HOW THE 2026-10-06 RE-COUNT MUST BE READ, and a session that
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misses this will draw the wrong conclusion from a true number.**
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U4 has two halves and they do NOT have the same adoption cost:
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- **The hold rides for free.** A session that runs `booth ask` gets its booth
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held with no knowledge of anything. The operator answering releases it. No
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peer has to learn a thing for the mechanism to work.
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- **NOT PRESSING `keep` HAS TO BE LEARNED.** U4 makes the sentinel unnecessary
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for the "not yet" case; it does not make it unavailable, and nothing stops a
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habit. An agent that has always pressed `keep` while waiting will keep
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pressing it.
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**So a flat `.forever` rate on 2026-10-06 does NOT falsify the diagnosis.** It
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is exactly what "the mechanism works and nobody was told" looks like — the U5
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shape, one unit later. Reporting a null result without this caveat would retire
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a correct diagnosis on the strength of an uncontrolled measurement.
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**Use these instead, and report all three.** The raw rate stays as context, not
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as the verdict:
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1. **The overlap — booths with an open pick AND `.forever`.** Was **3** on
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2026-09-22, which is the positive control for the whole diagnosis. It falls
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only if peers learn; it is the *adoption* number.
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comm -12 <(grep -l '"shape": "pick"' ~/booth-data/*/.marks.json | xargs -n1 dirname | sort) \
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<(dirname ~/booth-data/*/.forever | sort) | wc -l
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2. **Did the hold ever bind?** Count booths that were held past their TTL and
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therefore survived a sweep they would otherwise have lost. This needs no
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peer to change anything, so it is the honest test of whether the mechanism
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is load-bearing at all. **If it is ZERO over a fortnight, the diagnosis was
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wrong about VOLUME** — the "not yet" case is rarer than the sentinel rate
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suggested — and that is a real finding. The sweeper logs what it wipes;
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nothing yet logs what it spares, so **this counter does not exist and would
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have to be added before it can be read.** Say so rather than guessing.
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3. **The raw `.forever` rate** — 17 of 24 (70%) on 2026-09-22. Context only,
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now that the no-notice decision has made it a measurement of habit rather
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than of need.
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⚠ **Sensitivity floor, stated because a bare "no effect" is unfalsifiable:**
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only **4 of 24** booths carried marks at all on 2026-09-22. The hold cannot
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bind on a booth with no marks, so at that population the mechanism can touch at
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most a sixth of the fleet, and an effect smaller than one or two booths is not
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resolvable by any of these counts. Related: `[[2026-09-22-forever-had-a-live-positive-control]]`.
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