diff --git a/docs/diagnostics/r30-phi0-findings.md b/docs/diagnostics/r30-phi0-findings.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d1c1ca3 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/diagnostics/r30-phi0-findings.md @@ -0,0 +1,77 @@ +# R30 Phase-1 — φ0 PAD-point decay measurement (demo v1.0.0b14, A1 anchor fix) + +Executor: ratatoskr-dev · coordinator: worldtree-dev · owner: brokkr-smithy-dev. +Method: **joint two-timescale fit (b)** (brokkr-ruled) + **empty-tail direct fit** +as mutual validation, both run off the same trajectory. Measured against the +**corrected anchor** (`decay_anchor = baseline_pad()`, positive_p_cap removed; +worldtree v1.0.0b14 `e1cdf82`). + +## Method +- 4 base agents × {pos, neg} impulse, fresh `end_user` each, 26 turns, "Please + continue." neutrals + ~16s spacing (so one trajectory yields both an + emotion-free tail AND the full joint-fit series). Natural per-turn cadence for + the point-decay; spacing only lets the wall-clock emotion fade land in-window. +- **Capture:** `affect_update` `current` snapshot (live mood) + `emotions_active` + + wall-clock, per turn. +- **push_t** (the covariate): only NEWLY-appraised, new-type-or-strictly-stronger + emotions push (dedup-gated; confirmed source-authoritative by worldtree-dev vs + `registry.py::post_turn` L307-324 — the persistent `emotions_active` decays for + render/goals but never re-pushes mood). Reconstructed from `emotions_active` + deltas: a type new or strictly-stronger-than-the-prior(decayed)-snapshot pushed + at its new intensity. `push_t[axis] = Σ OCC_PAD_IMPULSES[type]·intensity·0.15`. +- **Model** (per axis, push-then-decay): `y_t=(axis_{t+1}−anchor)`, + `X_t=(axis_t+push_t−anchor)`, regress `y=φ·X+c` → φ=slope, decay_rate=1−φ, + anchor=`baseline_pad`. Validated on b9 first (φ_P 0.959, c −0.003, r² 0.997). + +## Result — CONFIG FAITHFUL + +**φ0 (PAD-point decay retention) ≈ 0.95–0.97, config-faithful.** Both reads agree: + +| agent | baseline P | joint φ_P | c_P | r²_P | empty-tail φ0_P | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| lofn | 0.809 | 0.954 / 0.967 (pos/neg) | ~0.000 | 0.93–0.94 | — (excursion faded pre-empty) | +| mimir | 0.615 | 0.964 / 0.977 (pos/neg) | −0.012 / −0.015 | 0.97–0.99 | — (never emptied) | +| mask | 0.000 | 0.983 (pos) | +0.004 | 0.90 | — | +| forseti | 0.239 | signal-poor (r²=0.46/0.61, excluded) | — | — | **0.95** (neg, r²=1.0) | + +- **Joint fit, 5 well-conditioned runs (3 baselines): φ_P = 0.969 ± 0.01** + (range 0.954–0.983). +- **Empty-tail cross-check** (forseti_neg's clean pure-decay tail): **φ0_P = 0.95**, + r²=1.0 — independently confirms the joint fit. +- **config cross-check:** measured φ0 ≈ 0.95–0.97 vs config `1−0.05 = 0.95` → + **config faithfully applied.** The R29 "net ~0.90" was **continuous + re-appraisal** (a new dedup-gated push most turns), NOT re-push contamination. +- **intercept c ≈ 0** across the well-conditioned runs (−0.015..+0.004) → the + push_t reconstruction + push-then-decay order are correct on the deployed engine. + +### Diagnostics for brokkr +- **(i) residual/c:** c≈0 → push_t + order correctly specified. ✓ +- **(ii) φ≈0.95:** YES → config faithful; kills the config≠behavior worry. ✓ +- **(iii) A/P decay ratio: NO clean ~1.9.** The per-axis mood-point decay is + roughly uniform (matches the single `decay_rate` in `model.py` L175-179). + CAVEAT: the per-axis **A/D** fits are noisy — small A/D excursions yield some + φ_A>1 artifacts (e.g. mask A/P −1.66 is a fit artifact), so the ratio is not + cleanly determined here; but there is **no support for 1.9×** in the mood-decay + layer. If the S2 ~1.9× chronometry is real it lives elsewhere (the OCC impulse + vectors' per-axis asymmetry, or emotion wall-clock decay), not in point-decay. + A dedicated per-axis run with larger A/D excursions would pin it. +- **trait-flat:** φ_P ~equal across baselines 0.0 / 0.615 / 0.809 → the current + decay is **trait-FLAT** (the pre-R30 baseline R30's `dynamics_from_ocean()` will + modulate). ✓ + +### φ_max recommendation (preserve-persistence rule, Vuong-locked) +Measured φ0 ≈ 0.96 (> 0.90) → **RELAX φ_max to ≈0.96** — the measured good +operating point defines the cap; do NOT re-base the agents faster. + +## Caveats +- **forseti (baseline 0.239) is signal-poor** in the joint fit — a negative + impulse from a low baseline has little down-room → tiny excursion → ill- + conditioned regression (r² 0.46/0.61). Correctly excluded (its empty-tail + still gave a clean 0.95). High/mid-baseline agents (lofn/mimir/mask) carry the + joint-fit signal. +- **mask_neg** stalled on a demo-side turn hang (SSE stall on turn 14); + proceeding with 7/8. Non-blocking — mask_pos already anchors the neutral (0.0) + trait point; mask_neg would be a second neutral-baseline run. + +Series: `r30-phi0-{lofn,mimir,forseti,mask}-{pos,neg}.json` (per-turn pad + +emotions_active + wall-clock). sec/turn ≈ 19–25 (16s spacing + processing). diff --git a/docs/diagnostics/r30-phi0-forseti-neg.json b/docs/diagnostics/r30-phi0-forseti-neg.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8e9204d --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/diagnostics/r30-phi0-forseti-neg.json @@ -0,0 +1,664 @@ +{ + "probe": "R30 Phase-1 \u03c60 step-response", + "server": "http://10.250.50.152:8080", + "agent": "forseti", + "step": "neg", + "baseline_pad": [ + 0.239, + -0.696, + 0.095 + ], + "end_user_id": "r30-phi0-forseti-neg-1783086627", + "n_turns": 26, + "total_turns": 26, + "emotion_fade_turn_index": 14, + "seconds_per_turn": 20.63, + "method": "joint two-timescale fit (b): natural cadence, push_t covariate from emotions_active deltas; anchor = baseline_pad on b14, neutral(0) on b9.", + 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