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forgefirm/scripts/bench/flow_matrix_log.txt
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ScottW514 f92147093e Flow-detection experimental record and bench tooling 
Adds the design matrix and its supporting tools, and records in BRINGUP
what the 60-run matrix overturned: sub-40-percent duty mimics flow
(three of five dead-pump trials looked healthier than a working pump),
the operating point and threshold now rest on 25 pooled observations,
periodic re-checks are thermally free with the fans running, and the
settle gate closes a bench-proven miss. Also records what is NOT yet
validated - warm-loop baselines and behaviour under laser heating - as
first-light commissioning items.
2026-08-02 23:51:31 -04:00

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=== flow matrix started 2026-08-02 20:20:59
duties=[10, 15, 20, 30, 40, 50] repeats=5 run=75s durations=[15, 20, 25, 30, 40, 50, 60, 75]
controller stopped for the experiment
initial settle (180 s with fans)...
baseline: down=22.62 up=22.46 (target for every run: <= 22.96)
[ 1/60] rep1 duty 10% FLOW start=22.77 down_rise@30s=3.93
elapsed 0.1 h
[ 2/60] rep1 duty 10% NO-FLOW start=22.38 down_rise@30s=3.10
elapsed 0.1 h
[ 3/60] rep1 duty 15% FLOW start=22.85 down_rise@30s=4.73
elapsed 0.1 h
[ 4/60] rep1 duty 15% NO-FLOW start=22.38 down_rise@30s=3.45
elapsed 0.2 h
[ 5/60] rep1 duty 20% FLOW start=22.77 down_rise@30s=3.64
elapsed 0.2 h
[ 6/60] rep1 duty 20% NO-FLOW start=22.46 down_rise@30s=6.82
elapsed 0.2 h
[ 7/60] rep1 duty 30% FLOW start=22.23 down_rise@30s=8.41
elapsed 0.2 h
[ 8/60] rep1 duty 30% NO-FLOW start=22.30 down_rise@30s=11.03
elapsed 0.3 h
[ 9/60] rep1 duty 40% FLOW start=22.93 down_rise@30s=11.46
elapsed 0.3 h
[10/60] rep1 duty 40% NO-FLOW start=22.46 down_rise@30s=15.27
elapsed 0.3 h
[11/60] rep1 duty 50% FLOW start=22.23 down_rise@30s=14.75
elapsed 0.3 h
[12/60] rep1 duty 50% NO-FLOW start=22.54 down_rise@30s=18.74
elapsed 0.4 h
[13/60] rep2 duty 10% FLOW start=21.84 down_rise@30s=3.14
elapsed 0.4 h
[14/60] rep2 duty 10% NO-FLOW start=22.30 down_rise@30s=2.29
elapsed 0.4 h
[15/60] rep2 duty 15% FLOW start=22.15 down_rise@30s=3.46
elapsed 0.5 h
[16/60] rep2 duty 15% NO-FLOW start=22.77 down_rise@30s=4.08
elapsed 0.5 h
[17/60] rep2 duty 20% FLOW start=22.15 down_rise@30s=4.69
elapsed 0.5 h
[18/60] rep2 duty 20% NO-FLOW start=22.77 down_rise@30s=5.51
elapsed 0.5 h
[19/60] rep2 duty 30% FLOW start=21.99 down_rise@30s=7.17
elapsed 0.6 h
[20/60] rep2 duty 30% NO-FLOW start=22.93 down_rise@30s=7.10
elapsed 0.6 h
[21/60] rep2 duty 40% FLOW start=22.62 down_rise@30s=8.82
elapsed 0.6 h
[22/60] rep2 duty 40% NO-FLOW start=22.62 down_rise@30s=13.46
elapsed 0.6 h
[23/60] rep2 duty 50% FLOW start=22.30 down_rise@30s=12.66
elapsed 0.7 h
[24/60] rep2 duty 50% NO-FLOW start=22.54 down_rise@30s=18.18
elapsed 0.7 h
[25/60] rep3 duty 10% FLOW start=22.07 down_rise@30s=2.43
elapsed 0.7 h
[26/60] rep3 duty 10% NO-FLOW start=22.07 down_rise@30s=3.40
elapsed 0.7 h
[27/60] rep3 duty 15% FLOW start=22.62 down_rise@30s=4.40
elapsed 0.8 h
[28/60] rep3 duty 15% NO-FLOW start=21.76 down_rise@30s=4.62
elapsed 0.8 h
[29/60] rep3 duty 20% FLOW start=22.85 down_rise@30s=4.35
elapsed 0.8 h
[30/60] rep3 duty 20% NO-FLOW start=21.68 down_rise@30s=4.79
elapsed 0.8 h
[31/60] rep3 duty 30% FLOW start=22.30 down_rise@30s=9.11
elapsed 0.9 h
[32/60] rep3 duty 30% NO-FLOW start=22.15 down_rise@30s=7.28
elapsed 0.9 h
[33/60] rep3 duty 40% FLOW start=21.91 down_rise@30s=10.00
elapsed 0.9 h
[34/60] rep3 duty 40% NO-FLOW start=22.85 down_rise@30s=14.55
elapsed 0.9 h
[35/60] rep3 duty 50% FLOW start=22.62 down_rise@30s=12.71
elapsed 1.0 h
[36/60] rep3 duty 50% NO-FLOW start=22.62 down_rise@30s=18.19
elapsed 1.0 h
[37/60] rep4 duty 10% FLOW start=22.54 down_rise@30s=2.75
elapsed 1.0 h
[38/60] rep4 duty 10% NO-FLOW start=20.75 down_rise@30s=2.92
elapsed 1.1 h
[39/60] rep4 duty 15% FLOW start=22.15 down_rise@30s=4.17
elapsed 1.1 h
[40/60] rep4 duty 15% NO-FLOW start=22.62 down_rise@30s=4.71
elapsed 1.1 h
[41/60] rep4 duty 20% FLOW start=21.37 down_rise@30s=5.48
elapsed 1.1 h
[42/60] rep4 duty 20% NO-FLOW start=22.23 down_rise@30s=4.77
elapsed 1.2 h
[43/60] rep4 duty 30% FLOW start=22.46 down_rise@30s=6.41
elapsed 1.2 h
[44/60] rep4 duty 30% NO-FLOW start=22.62 down_rise@30s=6.84
elapsed 1.2 h
[45/60] rep4 duty 40% FLOW start=22.54 down_rise@30s=10.50
elapsed 1.2 h
[46/60] rep4 duty 40% NO-FLOW start=22.69 down_rise@30s=14.56
elapsed 1.3 h
[47/60] rep4 duty 50% FLOW start=22.38 down_rise@30s=13.75
elapsed 1.3 h
[48/60] rep4 duty 50% NO-FLOW start=22.23 down_rise@30s=18.61
elapsed 1.3 h
[49/60] rep5 duty 10% FLOW start=22.38 down_rise@30s=2.67
elapsed 1.3 h
[50/60] rep5 duty 10% NO-FLOW start=22.07 down_rise@30s=4.10
elapsed 1.4 h
[51/60] rep5 duty 15% FLOW start=21.45 down_rise@30s=3.94
elapsed 1.4 h
[52/60] rep5 duty 15% NO-FLOW start=22.15 down_rise@30s=3.19
elapsed 1.4 h
[53/60] rep5 duty 20% FLOW start=21.91 down_rise@30s=4.26
elapsed 1.4 h
[54/60] rep5 duty 20% NO-FLOW start=22.46 down_rise@30s=5.25
elapsed 1.5 h
[55/60] rep5 duty 30% FLOW start=22.23 down_rise@30s=7.34
elapsed 1.5 h
[56/60] rep5 duty 30% NO-FLOW start=22.77 down_rise@30s=11.06
elapsed 1.5 h
[57/60] rep5 duty 40% FLOW start=22.93 down_rise@30s=9.65
elapsed 1.5 h
[58/60] rep5 duty 40% NO-FLOW start=22.38 down_rise@30s=13.48
elapsed 1.6 h
[59/60] rep5 duty 50% FLOW start=22.38 down_rise@30s=12.59
elapsed 1.6 h
[60/60] rep5 duty 50% NO-FLOW start=21.68 down_rise@30s=20.05
elapsed 1.6 h
=== COST: bulk (upstream) rise during a check, flow case, degrees C
duty 15s 20s 25s 30s 40s 50s 60s 75s
10% 0.34 0.62 0.67 0.33 0.30 0.58 0.09 0.34
15% 0.03 0.76 0.50 0.67 0.53 0.69 0.39 0.64
20% -0.08 -0.17 0.23 0.09 0.19 0.23 0.02 0.50
30% 0.79 0.73 1.39 0.83 1.11 1.17 1.42 1.22
40% 0.55 0.36 1.05 1.06 0.95 0.76 1.25 1.53
50% 1.26 1.83 1.72 1.59 2.03 2.03 2.19 2.69
=== PRECISION: downstream-rise discrimination (flow vs no-flow)
duty dur flow mean+-sd noflow mean+-sd sep worst d-prime
10% 15s 2.68+-0.45 2.03+-0.71 -0.65 -2.20 -1.1
10% 20s 2.90+-0.69 2.81+-0.37 -0.09 -1.65 -0.2
10% 25s 2.76+-0.69 3.10+-0.60 0.33 -1.80 0.5
10% 30s 2.98+-0.59 3.16+-0.66 0.18 -1.64 0.3
10% 40s 2.90+-0.86 3.30+-0.42 0.40 -1.08 0.6
10% 50s 3.05+-0.85 3.88+-0.44 0.83 -1.09 1.2
10% 60s 2.37+-0.54 3.61+-0.54 1.24 -0.21 2.3
10% 75s 2.60+-0.83 4.12+-0.54 1.52 -0.36 2.2
15% 15s 2.93+-0.63 2.93+-0.36 -0.01 -1.21 -0.0
15% 20s 3.97+-0.33 3.54+-0.35 -0.42 -1.31 -1.2
15% 25s 3.89+-0.86 3.95+-0.45 0.06 -1.46 0.1
15% 30s 4.14+-0.48 4.01+-0.68 -0.13 -1.55 -0.2
15% 40s 4.11+-0.79 4.43+-0.65 0.32 -1.54 0.4
15% 50s 4.17+-0.78 5.01+-0.34 0.83 -0.24 1.4
15% 60s 4.17+-0.52 5.09+-0.48 0.92 -0.21 1.8
15% 75s 4.21+-0.41 5.75+-0.45 1.54 +0.37 3.6
20% 15s 3.84+-0.78 3.57+-0.83 -0.27 -2.08 -0.3
20% 20s 4.18+-0.53 4.14+-0.83 -0.03 -1.36 -0.0
20% 25s 4.71+-0.92 4.90+-1.03 0.19 -1.91 0.2
20% 30s 4.48+-0.67 5.43+-0.84 0.95 -0.71 1.2
20% 40s 4.84+-0.58 5.79+-1.16 0.96 -0.61 1.0
20% 50s 4.98+-0.39 6.41+-0.79 1.43 +0.22 2.3
20% 60s 4.53+-0.66 6.67+-1.39 2.14 -0.44 2.0
20% 75s 4.95+-0.65 7.34+-1.02 2.39 +0.64 2.8
30% 15s 6.32+-0.81 5.63+-1.72 -0.69 -3.43 -0.5
30% 20s 7.13+-1.31 6.86+-2.24 -0.27 -3.67 -0.1
30% 25s 7.65+-0.92 7.73+-1.93 0.08 -2.63 0.1
30% 30s 7.69+-1.07 8.66+-2.18 0.97 -2.27 0.6
30% 40s 7.69+-0.90 9.96+-2.65 2.27 -1.00 1.1
30% 50s 8.15+-0.75 10.24+-2.37 2.09 -0.93 1.2
30% 60s 8.20+-0.70 10.77+-2.34 2.57 -0.35 1.5
30% 75s 8.27+-1.28 10.86+-2.26 2.59 -0.82 1.4
40% 15s 8.06+-0.87 10.14+-0.65 2.08 +0.37 2.7
40% 20s 8.93+-1.07 12.07+-0.48 3.13 +1.06 3.8
40% 25s 9.61+-1.22 13.47+-0.98 3.86 +0.96 3.5
40% 30s 10.09+-0.98 14.26+-0.78 4.18 +2.00 4.7
40% 40s 10.29+-1.41 16.01+-0.88 5.72 +2.77 4.9
40% 50s 10.14+-0.87 16.95+-0.74 6.81 +4.58 8.4
40% 60s 10.71+-1.22 17.27+-0.96 6.56 +3.72 6.0
40% 75s 10.46+-1.22 17.88+-0.77 7.42 +5.38 7.2
50% 15s 10.73+-0.65 13.02+-0.71 2.29 +0.22 3.3
50% 20s 12.71+-0.89 15.58+-0.85 2.87 +0.55 3.3
50% 25s 12.71+-0.96 17.10+-0.78 4.39 +1.66 5.0
50% 30s 13.29+-0.95 18.75+-0.76 5.46 +3.43 6.4
50% 40s 14.04+-0.80 20.38+-1.16 6.34 +3.48 6.3
50% 50s 14.38+-0.57 21.61+-0.93 7.23 +5.08 9.4
50% 60s 14.24+-0.48 22.14+-1.02 7.90 +5.94 9.9
50% 75s 14.18+-0.78 23.17+-1.10 8.99 +6.51 9.4
=== RANKED by d-prime (separation in pooled standard deviations)
rank duty dur d-prime worst-margin bulk-cost threshold
1 50% 60s 9.9 +5.94 2.19 18.19
2 50% 75s 9.4 +6.51 2.69 18.68
3 50% 50s 9.4 +5.08 2.03 18.00
4 40% 50s 8.4 +4.58 0.76 13.54
5 40% 75s 7.2 +5.38 1.53 14.17
6 50% 30s 6.4 +3.43 1.59 16.02
7 50% 40s 6.3 +3.48 2.03 17.21
8 40% 60s 6.0 +3.72 1.25 13.99
9 50% 25s 5.0 +1.66 1.72 14.91
10 40% 40s 4.9 +2.77 0.95 13.15
11 40% 30s 4.7 +2.00 1.06 12.18
12 40% 20s 3.8 +1.06 0.36 10.50
(worst-margin = min(no-flow) - max(flow); positive means every
observed no-flow run exceeded every observed flow run.
bulk-cost = degrees C added to the loop per check.)
controller restarted; total elapsed 1.63 h
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