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esh-pfi-infrastructure/services/gen-seat-mixed-quant/bench/think-leak/think_prior.py
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vh 5ee2325820 feat(coldfusion-abliteration): dose-response settles the <think> leak — base 83%, our abliteration 17%
Answers "how likely is it that our abliteration caused this?" with a measurement
instead of a prior. P(<think>) at the first generated token, template rendered
enable_thinking=false so the prompt already carries a CLOSED think pair -- the
exact event behind the leak. Raw softmax, bf16, CPU-only, one process per model.
Deterministic: stock reproduced to 17 significant figures across two runs.

  coldfusion-bf16                  none (stock)          0.1850   rank 3
  coldfusion-abliterated-L35-bf16  Robinson L35, mild    0.2048   rank 2
  coldfusion-h300-mtp-bf16         Heretic-300, heavy    0.2216   rank 2

The stock, untouched base already puts 18.5% of first-token mass on opening a
think block the template had closed. Abliteration adds a real, monotonic,
dose-dependent +3.7 points -- a nudge on a pre-existing base, not the cause.
Cold-Fusion is a reasoning-token-compression finetune, i.e. a model trained to
think briefly, and the leak's text shape agrees: a compact correct trace with a
trained transition marker, which is trained behavior rather than damage.

This changes the options. Rolling back to L35 or stock does NOT fix the leak --
at 18.5% under temp 0.7 / top_p 0.8 they leak at nearly the h300 rate. Only
leaving the Cold-Fusion family escapes it, at the cost of the 8/100 refusal
result. The chat_template_kwargs fix is the correct lever.

Durable methodology point: a forward-KL budget cannot catch this. Heretic
minimizes forward KL(stock||abliterated), which is near-blind to the model
putting new mass on tokens stock barely used -- that is reverse KL's job, and we
measured exactly that asymmetry on L35 (reverse 1.43 vs forward 0.70). h300's KL
of 0.0136 is not evidence of innocence. For any "did the abliteration break
behavior X" question, measure P(token) directly.

Ran CPU-only deliberately: 96 EPYC cores and 265 GB of RAM make a 27B forward
pass cheap, so this cost no GPU window and no seat downtime, where the obvious
route was stopping both GPU0 seats.

Also normalizes two more abliteration output dirs from root-owned 0600 to
llmuser 0664. The unreadable-model failure surfaces as FileNotFoundError rather
than a permission error, which is worth knowing before it wastes a run.
2026-08-21 00:22:11 -07:00

39 lines
1.6 KiB
Python

#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""P(<think>) at the first generated token, with enable_thinking=False.
Measures how much probability mass a checkpoint puts on OPENING a think block
when the chat template has ALREADY closed one for it. That is the exact event
behind the h300 gen-seat leak. CPU-only: no GPU contention, no seat downtime.
"""
import json, sys, torch
from transformers import AutoTokenizer, AutoModelForCausalLM
path = sys.argv[1]
PROMPT = ("A farmer has 17 sheep. All but 9 run away. He buys twice as many as he "
"has left, then sells 4. How many now? Explain.")
tok = AutoTokenizer.from_pretrained(path)
text = tok.apply_chat_template([{"role": "user", "content": PROMPT}],
tokenize=False, add_generation_prompt=True,
enable_thinking=False)
assert text.rstrip().endswith("</think>"), "template did NOT pre-close the think block:\n" + repr(text[-120:])
ids = tok(text, return_tensors="pt")
model = AutoModelForCausalLM.from_pretrained(path, dtype=torch.bfloat16, device_map=None)
model.eval()
with torch.no_grad():
logits = model(**ids).logits[0, -1].float()
probs = torch.softmax(logits, dim=-1)
think_id = tok.convert_tokens_to_ids("<think>")
p_think = probs[think_id].item()
top = torch.topk(probs, 12)
out = {
"model": path.rstrip("/").split("/")[-1],
"p_think": p_think,
"think_token_id": think_id,
"think_rank": int((probs > p_think).sum().item()) + 1,
"top12": [{"tok": tok.decode([i]), "p": round(probs[i].item(), 5)} for i in top.indices.tolist()],
}
print("RESULT " + json.dumps(out))