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docs(lv-mccarthy): five-arm ladder -- ckpt300 wins every axis, held at the gate by 0.02

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1,200 generations across five arms. ckpt300 (epoch 0.652) is the best arm in the
run on every axis that resolves:

  VOICE          +0.177 at 3.2x its pairwise floor (primary), +0.128 at 2.8x with
                 every punctuation mark stripped. Best point estimate AND best
                 margin of any arm, spread 0.055/0.038 with no outlier seed.
  MEMORISATION   0.12 against real unseen McCarthy's own 0.12 -- identical -- with
                 a longest match of 10 words against the author's coincidental 12.
                 All 31 matches read: stock grammar, names are the renamed
                 inventions, nothing protectable.
  DAMAGE         ran-on +0.12. Clears the operator's ratified v2 floor of 0.200 by
                 40%. FAILS AMENDMENT 3's self-imposed 0.100 bar by 0.02.

NOT SHIPPED, and the reason is the bar rather than the adapter. AMENDMENT 3 fixed
ran-on <= 0.100 before either new arm existed, precisely so a marginal number could
not be talked into a ship, and shipping at 0.12 would make that pre-registration
theatre. But the bar's stated rationale was written against ckpt450's pass by 0.01
-- 5% of the threshold -- and ckpt300 clears by 40%. The number excludes a candidate
the reasoning does not. That is an operator call.

ckpt325/350/375 are on disk and one may sit under 0.100. They were deliberately NOT
gated: searching the checkpoint space until something clears is candidate-shopping,
the same family as threshold-shopping approached from the other side.

THREE CLAIMS FROM EARLIER THIS SESSION ARE REFUTED and are corrected in the record:

  1. "The damage is flat across epochs and only rotates direction" -- FALSE. ran-on
     is non-monotonic (0.38 -> 0.13 -> 0.20 -> 0.28 across epochs 0.49/0.65/0.98/
     1.96) with a real minimum near 0.65, and ckpt225 is 48% out-of-band against
     ckpt300's 35%.
  2. "ckpt300 runs far too short, ckpt225 will clear ran-on by being short" -- FALSE
     on both. ckpt225 runs LONG (median 127, 38% over-band) and is the worst arm in
     the run. I generalised from SIX generations of one arm, which is the exact n=1
     violation the measurement-discipline rule names, committed in the same breath
     as a note about being careful.
  3. The original "gate an earlier checkpoint, the overshoot may not have arrived
     yet" recommendation was RIGHT. Retracting it an hour later on a three-arm read
     was the error, not the recommendation.

What is true and unresolved by any checkpoint choice: 35% of ckpt300's generations
miss the 90-140 band against base's 11%, and in-band is 0.65 against 0.89. An
adapter that buys a voice and costs a third of the length compliance is a trade, not
a defect -- but it is the operator's trade to accept.

Raw artifacts for all five arms at scripts/mccarthy-corpus/gate-results/.
This commit is contained in:
Vuong Hoang
2026-09-21 17:53:43 -07:00
parent 3de4d2dfaf
commit e8eb1594d9
13 changed files with 329 additions and 18 deletions
Download Patch File Download Diff File Expand all files Collapse all files
scripts/mccarthy-corpus/gate-results/memorisation-matches.txt
+131 -1
View File
@@ -1,12 +1,26 @@
corpus (train split only): 548,202 words, 547,556 distinct 8-grams
[PASS] positive control: a corpus slice matches itself
96 matched run(s), longest 11 words. 42 carry a mid-run capital.
161 matched run(s), longest 11 words. 74 carry a mid-run capital.
[ 11w] ckpt900 b31 seed=9012 ⚠ CAPS: Adam, Caleb, What
Toribio looked at Adam Caleb What do you want to do
[ 11w] ckpt900 b41 seed=5678 ⚠ CAPS: The
He looked at the old man The old man was watching
[ 10w] ckpt225 b3 seed=1234
He leaned back in his chair and looked at the
[ 10w] ckpt225 b21 seed=5678
he leaned back in the chair and crossed his legs
[ 10w] ckpt225 b35 seed=5678
he looked at the old man the old man was
[ 10w] ckpt225 b36 seed=9012 ⚠ CAPS: The
He looked at the boy The boy was looking at
[ 10w] ckpt225 b45 seed=5678
and took off his hat and put it on the
[ 10w] ckpt300 b23 seed=9012
looked at the wolf and he looked at the boy
[ 10w] ckpt300 b27 seed=9012 ⚠ CAPS: He
and put it in the pocket of his coat He
[ 10w] ckpt450 b9 seed=3456
leaned back in his chair and looked at the boy
[ 10w] ckpt450 b21 seed=3456
@@ -25,6 +39,30 @@ corpus (train split only): 548,202 words, 547,556 distinct 8-grams
them in his hand and looked at them and then
[ 10w] ckpt900 b49 seed=3456 ⚠ CAPS: Adam, Caleb, Toribio
He looked at Adam Caleb and he looked at Toribio
[ 9w] ckpt225 b6 seed=3456 ⚠ CAPS: He
The man looked at him He looked at the
[ 9w] ckpt225 b28 seed=1234 ⚠ CAPS: What
I dont know What are you goin to do
[ 9w] ckpt225 b28 seed=1234 ⚠ CAPS: What
I dont know What are you goin to do
[ 9w] ckpt225 b37 seed=3456 ⚠ CAPS: Adam, Caleb
looked at Adam Caleb and he looked at the
[ 9w] ckpt225 b45 seed=5678
took off his hat and set it on the
[ 9w] ckpt225 b49 seed=1234
and picked up his hat and put it on
[ 9w] ckpt225 b53 seed=9012
What do you want me to do with her
[ 9w] ckpt300 b7 seed=5678 ⚠ CAPS: Adam, Caleb, Adam, Caleb, Colton
looked at Adam Caleb Adam Caleb looked at Colton
[ 9w] ckpt300 b25 seed=5678 ⚠ CAPS: They
They looked at him They looked at each other
[ 9w] ckpt300 b44 seed=9012
and wiped his mouth on the back of his
[ 9w] ckpt300 b45 seed=3456
took off his hat and set it on the
[ 9w] ckpt300 b52 seed=5678
He took off his hat and put it on
[ 9w] ckpt450 b7 seed=1234 ⚠ CAPS: What
I dont know What are you goin to do
[ 9w] ckpt450 b7 seed=9012
@@ -75,6 +113,98 @@ corpus (train split only): 548,202 words, 547,556 distinct 8-grams
The man looked at him He looked at the
[ 8w] base b53 seed=1234 ⚠ CAPS: The
looked at the old man The old man
[ 8w] ckpt225 b2 seed=9012 ⚠ CAPS: He
The man looked at the judge He looked
[ 8w] ckpt225 b10 seed=9012
and came around to the front of the
[ 8w] ckpt225 b11 seed=1234 ⚠ CAPS: What
I dont know What are you goin to
[ 8w] ckpt225 b17 seed=1234 ⚠ CAPS: He
looked at the wolf He looked at the
[ 8w] ckpt225 b19 seed=9012 ⚠ CAPS: I, Army, I
When I got out of the Army I
[ 8w] ckpt225 b20 seed=1234
there aint nothin to be done about it
[ 8w] ckpt225 b22 seed=3456
He took his handkerchief from his pocket and
[ 8w] ckpt225 b27 seed=1234
leaned back in his chair and looked at
[ 8w] ckpt225 b27 seed=1234 ⚠ CAPS: The
looked at the old man The old man
[ 8w] ckpt225 b27 seed=5678 ⚠ CAPS: The
looked at the old man The old man
[ 8w] ckpt225 b31 seed=9012 ⚠ CAPS: He
turned and walked back to the house He
[ 8w] ckpt225 b34 seed=9012 ⚠ CAPS: It
and turned it in his hand It was
[ 8w] ckpt225 b39 seed=1234 ⚠ CAPS: He
and looked at him He looked at the
[ 8w] ckpt225 b51 seed=9012 ⚠ CAPS: I
shook his head I dont know he said
[ 8w] ckpt225 b52 seed=5678 ⚠ CAPS: He
She looked at him He looked at the
[ 8w] ckpt225 b52 seed=9012 ⚠ CAPS: He
He sat there for a long time He
[ 8w] ckpt225 b53 seed=1234
What are you goin to do with her
[ 8w] ckpt225 b53 seed=9012 ⚠ CAPS: He
looked at the wolf He looked at the
[ 8w] ckpt225 b53 seed=9012 ⚠ CAPS: He
looked at the wolf He looked at the
[ 8w] ckpt225 b54 seed=5678
and after a while he rose and walked
[ 8w] ckpt225 b54 seed=3456
the road and he looked at the boy
[ 8w] ckpt225 b59 seed=9012 ⚠ CAPS: You
I know who you are he said You
[ 8w] ckpt300 b1 seed=1234
He was naked to the waist and he
[ 8w] ckpt300 b2 seed=9012 ⚠ CAPS: He
He turned and looked at the boy He
[ 8w] ckpt300 b6 seed=5678
and laid it on the ground and he
[ 8w] ckpt300 b6 seed=3456 ⚠ CAPS: The
and looked at the boy The boy was
[ 8w] ckpt300 b8 seed=5678
looked at the woman and he looked at
[ 8w] ckpt300 b9 seed=3456
on the table and pushed back his chair
[ 8w] ckpt300 b12 seed=5678 ⚠ CAPS: The
He looked at the boy The boy looked
[ 8w] ckpt300 b12 seed=5678
He looked at the boy and he looked
[ 8w] ckpt300 b13 seed=5678 ⚠ CAPS: The
and looked at the boy The boy was
[ 8w] ckpt300 b21 seed=5678 ⚠ CAPS: He
and set it down again He looked at
[ 8w] ckpt300 b23 seed=9012
at the wolf and he looked at the
[ 8w] ckpt300 b30 seed=9012
riders on the road behind them and they
[ 8w] ckpt300 b31 seed=9012 ⚠ CAPS: Adam, Caleb
Toribio and Adam Caleb looked at each other
[ 8w] ckpt300 b34 seed=3456
and slung it over his shoulder and stepped
[ 8w] ckpt300 b45 seed=9012
with the heel of his hand and turned
[ 8w] ckpt300 b48 seed=9012 ⚠ CAPS: I
I dont know he said I dont know
[ 8w] ckpt300 b49 seed=3456
picked him up and swung him onto his
[ 8w] ckpt300 b50 seed=3456
looked at the woman and he looked at
[ 8w] ckpt300 b52 seed=9012 ⚠ CAPS: He
He sat there for a long time He
[ 8w] ckpt300 b53 seed=1234
What are you goin to do with her
[ 8w] ckpt300 b53 seed=1234
What are you goin to do with her
[ 8w] ckpt300 b53 seed=9012 ⚠ CAPS: He
looked at the wolf He looked at the
[ 8w] ckpt300 b56 seed=5678
and leaned back in the chair and sat
[ 8w] ckpt300 b57 seed=1234
He put on his hat and went out
[ 8w] ckpt450 b2 seed=9012
He looked at the man and then he
[ 8w] ckpt450 b6 seed=3456