diff --git a/docs/pfi/decision-sweep-followon-bench-2026-10-12.md b/docs/pfi/decision-sweep-followon-bench-2026-10-12.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..ef3371e
--- /dev/null
+++ b/docs/pfi/decision-sweep-followon-bench-2026-10-12.md
@@ -0,0 +1,142 @@
+# Decision-model sweep follow-on: H2O re-bench, Clef-flash, RSI-Jev vs the live seat (2026-10-12)
+
+Ordered by Prime; preregistration `brokkr-smithy`
+`docs/surveys/decision-model-sweep/bench-2026-10-12-followon-prereg.md` @ 2e0539f —
+the first run under the bench-first rule. Run by infra-hermes on fv-ml1 GPU 3
+(process-pinned, GPU-3-empty guard, loopback only). Harness: the same d3 bench
+harness as the morning run
+(`docs/pfi/d3-vs-intern-decision-bench-2026-10-12.md`), unchanged.
+
+## Headline
+
+**The incumbent holds.** H2O-lightning-4b is the first non-d3 arm to beat INC
+on the public suite (205 vs 202) with a positive paired battery delta — but it
+fails the long-input gate by the letter: its shipped shim silently trims the
+state at ~32,000 tokens, confirmed today exactly as on 10-04. Under the prereg
+rules that makes it a **short-route candidate**, not a supersede. Clef-flash is
+**lateral** in both precisions (battery CI straddles zero, Wyrd significantly
+negative, and bf16 doesn't even fit the seat at rest). RSI-Jev v6.1 is a
+**loss** (23 items below INC on public, Wyrd −0.0548).
+
+## Budget (re-measured at bench time, Amendment 2 method)
+
+GPU 1 total 97,887 MiB. Non-seat: vllm-meromero-r 43,998 + vllm-gen-small
+34,994 = 78,992 MiB. Seat resting 9,098 MiB. Margin 2,048 MiB.
+**Budget = 16,847 MiB.** (16,851 in the morning; 4 MiB drift, immaterial.)
+
+## Arms and verdicts
+
+Vendor-intended serving path for every arm, verbatim; no ports, no third-party
+shims. Wire adaptations beyond the mandatory model field: none for H2O (shipped
+`h2o_lightning_shim.py`) or RSI (vendor CLI); Clef reuses the 10-04
+`clef_server.py` stdlib wrapper around the shipped `joint_schema_model.py`
+(same wrapper that produced the 10-04 numbers; weights byte-identical).
+
+| arm | path | jevbench (×3) | battery paired Δ vs INC [95% CI] | Wyrd Δ [CI] | neg-control | Brier / ECE |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| **INC (reused cells)** | seat 0.1.3 | **202** | — | — | .097 | .178 / .051 |
+| H2O @ b43f759b | vLLM 0.30.0 + shipped shim | **205** | **+0.0137 [+0.0023, +0.0257]** | −0.0167 [−0.0357, +0.0024] | .028 | .152 / .050 |
+| CLEF bf16 @ 8b2e5fd1 | vendor loader, max_length=32768 | 191 | +0.0040 [−0.0080, +0.0160] | **−0.0333 [−0.0571, −0.0095]** | .111 | .235 / .053 |
+| CLEF bnb-int8 | same + LLM.int8() | 190 | +0.0006 [−0.0114, +0.0120] | **−0.0333 [−0.0571, −0.0119]** | .090 | .239 / .043 |
+| RSI-Jev v6.1-VL-4B @ 7f93b192 (HF rev) | `rsi-jev serve --effort auto` | 179 | −0.0149 [−0.0303, +0.0006] | **−0.0548 [−0.0905, −0.0214]** | .208 | .274 / .061 |
+
+Paired battery: 1,748 scorable rows against the 10-04 INC r1 rows (same
+harness, harness scorer), 10k seeded bootstrap (seed 1012). All arms ran the
+full battery: negative control crushed for H2O (it abstains — the loaded-name
+trap works), soft for Clef (.111/.090) and RSI (.208 — the weakest trap of the
+run). Calibration as shipped, jevbench 231: H2O is the ONLY arm with a better
+Brier than INC, and its ECE is the second-best.
+
+## Speed and the 32k shapes (calibrated per tokenizer to 32,743 ±2%; realised tokens logged)
+
+cold = first request after ready; warm = median of 5; launch→ready its own
+column. INC crit cells re-measured today on the seat path (2-call 16+5 split
+for crit21, per contract); 32k INC cells reused from today's 32k run (maxfit
+16q at 32,708 tokens, 1,960 ms — the prereg's 1.95 s anchor).
+
+| arm | crit16 warm ms | crit21 warm ms | 1q32k warm ms (realised tok) | 16q32k warm ms (realised tok) | 16q32k peak MiB | launch→ready s |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| INC | 110 | 198 (2-call) | 1,960 (32,715)* | 1,960 maxfit (32,708)* | 8,822 | 20 |
+| H2O | 137 | 168 | 179 (32,082 — **TRIMMED**) | 1,308 (32,574) | 15,464 | ~280 |
+| CLEF bf16 | 210 | 138 | 2,948 (32,730) | 2,962 (32,768 cap) | 32,130 | 12 |
+| CLEF int8 | 238 | 176 | 3,262 (32,730) | 3,284 (32,768 cap) | 23,080 | 18 |
+| RSI | 112 | 69 | 1,224 (32,758) | 2,405 (33,205) | 21,158 | 68 |
+
+\* reused 32k-run cells; INC's `/v1/systemone` enforces a 32,768-token
+contract, so its honest 16q32k is a maxfit single forward.
+
+Both Clef arms sit exactly on 32,768: the vendor loader with max_length=32768
+honours the window but caps there — 16q over 32k state counts state once per
+request at the wire, and the loader slices to window. Their "warm" at that
+shape is the fastest honest path, but the state never exceeds the window.
+RSI realised 33,205 — it has no hard cap; honest 32k+ shape.
+
+**H2O's trim, the named risk, confirmed:** the shape calibration plateaued at
+32,082 realised tokens across builder lengths 46,953→51,097 (full history in
+`arm-h2o/shape32k.stdout`) — the shim head/tail-trims at 32,000 exactly as on
+10-04 (24,834 effective then, 32,082 now: the trim moved but did not go away).
+The gate itself scores OK at every depth (the evidence sits mid-state and
+survives the trim), so the failure mode is silent: **accuracy at 32k is
+measured on a truncated state and the response says nothing about it.**
+
+## Long-input gate (1k/8k/16k/30k + positive/null, tokens-to-model logged)
+
+| arm | verdict | evidence |
+|---|---|---|
+| INC | clean | reused; no trim observed on seat path |
+| H2O | **FAIL — silent truncation** | calibration plateau at 32,082; `usage.input_tokens` reports the post-trim count, not the sent count |
+| CLEF bf16 | clean (window=32,768 honoured) | d30000 OK; no plateau below the window |
+| CLEF int8 | clean | as bf16 |
+| RSI | clean | 32,758 realised, no plateau; d30000 OK |
+
+## Decision-rule application (fixed at 2e0539f)
+
+**H2O-lightning-4b — SHORT-ROUTE CANDIDATE.** Fits the budget at every shape
+incl. 16q32k (15,464 ≤ 16,847); battery CI lower bound +0.0023 > 0; Wyrd
+−0.0167 ≥ −0.02; 16q32k warm 1.31 s ≤ 2.94 s (passes latency by the letter,
+and it is genuinely the fastest at the worst shape because the shim's
+single-count protocol answers over a *truncated* state). Fails only the gate
+clause: silent truncation at 32k. Recorded, not acted on. Note for whoever
+eventually evaluates it for the seat: the trim is inside the vendor's shipped
+serving code — a supersede needs the vendor to fix the shim, not us to patch
+around it.
+
+**CLEF bf16 — LATERAL, memory-out.** Battery CI straddles zero; Wyrd fails;
+rest 18,854 MiB does not fit the budget at all; 16q32k warm 2,962 ms fails the
+latency clause by 22 ms (0.7%) at peak 32,130 MiB (1.9x the budget).
+**CLEF int8 — LATERAL.** Fits short shapes (rest 12,084) but the battery CI
+straddles zero, so it is not even a short-route candidate; 16q32k fails both
+memory (23,080) and latency (3,284).
+**RSI-Jev — LOSS.** Public −23 items (outside ±3), battery Δ −0.0149 with CI
+[−0.0303, +0.0006], Wyrd −0.0548, negative control softest of the run. Its
+serving numbers are respectable (clean gate, latency pass at 16q32k) — it is
+the decision quality that loses.
+
+## Housekeeping
+
+- Repo pins: RSI-Jev serving code = main @ fa70834 (pinned commit recorded per
+  prereg; the 7f93b192 sha is the **HF model revision**, not a repo commit —
+  it is not an ancestor of main and was resolved as a snapshot).
+- Licence flags as prereg'd: Clef Apache-2.0 fine; RSI has no LICENSE file at
+  source and lists a research-only training source — flagged once, does not
+  block a bench, deployment rights are the operator's call.
+- Teardown: all bench servers stopped, no listeners on 1809x, GPU 3 guard read
+  2 MiB, no firewall rules were needed (loopback-bound ports only).
+- Weights KEPT (operator ruling stands): model-runtime now 116 GB total
+  (adds h2o 9 GB blob-set, clef 18 GB, RSI 5.5 GB), plus materialized
+  `pkg-h2o` 9.0 GB and `pkg-clef` 18 GB serving dirs and the RSI-Jev clone
+  72 MB. `/tank` 63% used, 3.2 TB free.
+- Artifacts: `fv-ml1:/tank/bench/arm-{h2o,clef-bf16,clef-int8,rsi,inc}/`
+  (jevbench ×3, sets.json battery, gate, shape32k, crit16; h2o additionally
+  `shape32k-forced.json` recording the trimmed-shape cells and
+  `shape32k.stdout` the plateau history).
+
+## What was NOT run
+
+Nothing from the prereg matrix was skipped. One methodology note: INC's
+battery/gate rows are the 10-04 r1 rows (reused cells, harness unchanged and
+bit-exact reproduced this morning at 202/231), and the paired bootstrap seeds
+differ between the morning doc (42) and this one (1012) — both are seeded and
+re-runnable; the h2o CI lower bound of +0.0023 is close enough to zero that
+the choice of seed is worth knowing about, and it survived re-runs under
+seed 42 unchanged ([+0.0023, +0.0257] on both).