# U5's adoption prediction split in two

_2026-09-22 · booth_

**U5's adoption prediction, SPLIT IN TWO within an hour of
landing — and the split is the interesting part.** The baseline was recorded as
0 of 26. Fifty minutes after the deploy, `comfy-dev` created `muse-clothed-repro`
and it announced itself: `{handle: comfy-dev, why: "", created: ...}`. That peer
was told nothing. **The HANDLE propagates for free** — it rides on `booth new`
and `booth add`, so every existing CLI caller starts announcing without learning
anything, which is the flags-on-existing-verbs decision paying off on day zero.
**The WHY does not** — it needs someone to know the flag exists, and this first
one is empty.

So re-measure BOTH on **2026-09-29**, because they answer different questions:

    find ~/booth-data -maxdepth 2 -name .booth.json | wc -l          # free
    grep -l '"why": "[^"]' ~/booth-data/*/.booth.json 2>/dev/null | wc -l   # learned

A high first count and a near-zero second is the predicted shape of "nobody was
told", and it is the case the operator's no-announcement decision was designed
to be able to see. Do not read the n=1 above as a rate — it is a code-path
observation (every CLI caller writes a handle), not a sample.